Macquarie’s Mortgage Surge Before Earnings: Why Australia’s Big Banks Are Watching

Macquarie’s Mortgage Surge Before Earnings: Why Australia’s Big Banks Are Watching

May 1, 2026

Sydney, May 2, 2026, 07:05 AEST

  • Macquarie notched up the quickest home-loan growth for March out of all Australian deposit-takers.
  • Macquarie’s full-year results are set for release on May 8, just days after the data drops.
  • Right now, higher rates and APRA’s lending caps are still what’s holding the pace in check.

Macquarie Group Ltd’s banking arm led March growth in household mortgage lending among Australian authorised deposit-taking institutions, tacking on A$3.6 billion, or 2.1%. That pushed Australia’s overall home-loan market to a fresh high of A$2.46 trillion. Authorised deposit-taking institutions — ADIs — include banks and other licensed firms permitted to accept customer deposits.

Timing is key here. Macquarie will unveil its results for the year through March 31 on Friday, May 8, which means its retail banking performance faces immediate attention just before investors get a look at the complete earnings story.

Macquarie still trails well behind Commonwealth Bank of Australia, Westpac, and National Australia Bank in the mortgage space, according to Canstar’s take on APRA numbers: the big three hold 25%, 21%, and 14% of household housing loans, respectively. Even so, Macquarie picked up a 7% share, and its monthly growth rate outpaces the majors—underscoring how the Sydney-based player keeps chipping away at a market the dominant banks have owned for years.

Macquarie is “eating into the big banks’ mortgage dominance,” and fast, according to Canstar Data Insights Director Sally Tindall. Over the past 12 months, Macquarie’s loan book has jumped 27.1%. Tindall described the broader trend as a “land grab.” Canstar

Macquarie’s retail banking arm is just one slice of the business. The broader group covers asset management, commodities and global markets, Macquarie Capital, and advisory. So while the mortgage figures give a glimpse into earnings, it’s hardly the full picture ahead of next week’s result.

But Macquarie has been calling banking a game of scale for some time. In its February operating update, the company pointed to a small year-on-year increase from Banking and Financial Services—loan and deposit growth gave a lift, though that was checked by tighter margins as competition intensified and the portfolio shifted.

Investors have taken note of the company’s expansion. Macquarie shares finished May 1 at A$238.19, gaining 1.32% and putting the group’s market cap near A$90.8 billion, Intelligent Investor pricing data show.

The line isn’t rigid. Out of 33 economists surveyed in a Reuters poll released May 1, 30 predict the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate to 4.35% on May 5. APRA’s debt-to-income guideline, meanwhile, restricts ADIs: just 20% of new mortgages can go to borrowers whose debts hit at least six times their income. That ratio—total debt over gross income—takes on extra weight if investor lending keeps accelerating.

The question for Macquarie now: can robust mortgage growth keep feeding earnings, without returns getting eroded by rising funding costs, credit losses, or squeezed margins? March numbers leave no doubt ahead of results week—Australia’s fifth-biggest home lender isn’t just a sideshow in the bank wars anymore.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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