Sydney — It’s May 3, 2026, clock just past 3:06 in the morning AEST.
Australia’s stock market wrapped up the week in the red, miners’ late surge not quite enough to pull it back. The S&P/ ASX 200 climbed 64.0 points, or 0.74%, to close at 8,729.8 on Friday, trimming losses but still ending the week 56.7 points lower—down about 0.7%. Materials jumped 2.1% as BHP, Rio Tinto and Champion Iron pushed higher. Financials dragged, with ANZ dropping 2.8%, and CBA, Westpac and NAB also down.
Awkward timing for markets. Rate jitters are front and center again as investors look to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s May 5 meeting. According to a Reuters poll, 30 out of 33 economists expect a 25-basis-point hike, putting the cash rate at 4.35%. “ Inflation is basically too high in Australia,” AMP economist My Bui told Reuters. Reuters
The inflation data tells the story behind Friday’s uneasy rebound. According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, consumer prices climbed 4.6% year-on-year to March, a noticeable jump from February’s 3.7%. Driving that move: a sharp 32.8% spike in automotive fuel for the month. Stripping out the wildest swings, the trimmed mean remained stuck at 3.3%.
Wall Street’s record run set the tone for local buyers. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched fresh closing highs on Friday, Reuters said, with upbeat earnings and falling crude prices buoying sentiment. That offered a welcome offshore cue, following local sessions rattled by oil and interest rate concerns.
Supermarket stocks reacted to the numbers rather than just broader economic nerves. Coles posted a 3.1% lift in group sales revenue to A$10.703 billion for the 12 weeks ending March 29. “Another strong sales result,” Chief Executive Leah Weckert said. Woolworths reported group sales of A$18.1 billion for the quarter—a 4.5% increase—but pointed to shakier expectations ahead and softer customer scores compared with the previous quarter.
ANZ struck a more guarded tone for the banks. The lender reported a statutory profit of A$3.650 billion for the half to March 31, with cash profit—excluding non-core items—at A$3.780 billion. Chief Executive Nuno Matos cautioned that “much of the potential impact” from the crisis hadn’t materialized yet, as tight oil flows continued to threaten both supply and growth. ANZ
ResMed’s quarter had the numbers, but the market wasn’t buying. The sleep-health firm posted an 11% jump in revenue to US$1.431 billion, with CEO Mick Farrell pointing to “continued strength.” Yet a CFO shake-up overshadowed the beat, and shares slipped in Friday afternoon trading, Capital Brief reported. Analyst Craig Wong-Pan at RBC Capital Markets highlighted that ResMed topped RBC’s consensus on most major metrics. ResMed Inc.
Economists aren’t declaring victory over inflation just yet. “The inflation problem has not yet been solved,” CBA Senior Economist Trent Saunders said. CBA Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen pointed to the RBA board’s challenge: juggling still-elevated inflation, weaker sentiment, and fallout from the Middle East conflict. CommBank
It’s a double-edged sword. Swift relief in oil and fuel costs might take the sting out of CPI, pushing the RBA to pause earlier than markets worry. But if those higher prices persist, consumers, lending, and rate-sensitive shares could all feel the squeeze in one go. AMP flagged the risk: one more rate hike could easily sap private-sector growth, which was only just starting to turn a corner.
Next week brings plenty of action. The RBA meets and drops its quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy—key events. Investors have an eye on household spending, building approvals, and the trade balance, looking for evidence of how the fuel spike and rate outlook are biting into demand. Friday’s rally patched up some of the damage on the chart, but the bigger picture remains.
