Tokyo, May 5, 2026, 05:10 JST
The Oman-flagged tanker Voyager, loaded with Russian Sakhalin Blend crude for Taiyo Oil, arrived off the coast near Imabari, Ehime Prefecture on Monday—Japan’s first Russian oil shipment since Iran-related disruptions squeezed Gulf supplies. High winds and rough seas prevented docking, delaying the cargo’s transfer to Taiyo’s refinery until May 5 or beyond.
The reason this cargo stands out: Japan’s main oil corridor has dried up quickly. Crude coming into Japan via the Strait of Hormuz plunged to 139,000 bpd in April—down sharply from the 2.04 million bpd average in the three months ahead of the Iran conflict. For Asia more broadly, crude imports hit a 10-year monthly low, according to LSEG Oil Research data cited by Reuters.
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Tokyo has mostly steered clear of Russian crude. Sakhalin-2 stands out. The U.S. Treasury has cleared services linked to shipping crude from the project into Japan, under an Office of Foreign Assets Control general licence running through June 18.
Taiyo picked up the crude from Sakhalin-2—Russia’s Far East oil and LNG operation—with delivery set for western Japan on May 4, according to the company’s earlier statements. Asked about potential future deals, Taiyo wouldn’t say. The firm did take its first Sakhalin Blend cargo in more than two years last year, after a request from the Japanese government.
Government involvement was clear in this shipment. Taiyo pointed to a request from Japan’s Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry as the reason for the procurement. The ministry, for its part, said Western governments had verified the crude was outside Russian sanctions. Taiyo kept the shipment volume under wraps, citing contract confidentiality.
Refiners across the board are chasing barrels wherever they can. Cosmo Oil took in a 910,000-barrel shipment of U.S. crude near Chiba at the end of April. Japan’s second round of stockpile releases is now feeding ENEOS, Idemitsu Kosan, Cosmo, and Taiyo. Meanwhile, Reuters noted an Idemitsu-affiliated tanker cleared Hormuz last week, hauling 2 million barrels of Saudi crude.
It’s not a seamless match. Most Japanese refineries are optimized for medium-sour grades from the Middle East — that’s heavier oil with higher sulphur, exactly what their equipment’s designed for. “Japan could likely push non-Middle East crude to around 30-50% of its slate in the short term. But fully replacing Middle Eastern supply is difficult,” Rystad Energy analyst Nithin Prakash said in comments to Reuters. Reuters
There’s not much safety net left in the oil market. According to Goldman Sachs, global oil inventories have dropped close to an eight-year low, with total stocks now covering just 101 days of world demand. The bank flagged the rapid drawdown and tightening product supplies in some regions as growing risks.
Monday’s trading brought pressure to prices: Brent futures jumped 5.9% to $114.60 a barrel, with U.S. West Texas Intermediate up 4% at $105.91 after new attacks in the Strait of Hormuz. Oil holding above $100 for an extended stretch could shift U.S. fiscal stimulus into more of a “shock absorber,” said Brock Weimer, investment strategy analyst at Edward Jones. Reuters
Japan’s worries aren’t just about refineries. The Bank of Japan flagged a risk scenario: With oil hovering at $105 a barrel, a 10% weaker yen and stocks sliding, core inflation could linger near 3% for two years. That kind of setup forces policymakers into a tight corner between hurting growth and letting prices climb.
Still, the situation remains far from resolved. Taiyo hasn’t promised any additional Sakhalin-2 volumes, the U.S. license expires in June, and rough weather already delayed the first cargo’s discharge. Ship broker BRS notes that, even with a fast Hormuz reopening, tanker and oil flows may not resemble normality before September at the earliest.
Japan is tapping every option it can legally access—Russian Sakhalin crude, U.S. shipments, domestic stockpiles, and rerouted cargoes that bypass the Gulf’s bottleneck. “Japanese oil companies are exploring procurement options from various countries,” Shunichi Kito, president of the Petroleum Association of Japan and chairman of Idemitsu Kosan, said in March. But all this comes as freight and insurance prices climb. Reuters
