Tokyo, May 11, 2026, 21:07 (JST)
- Subaru now expects operating profit to come in at 40 billion yen, slashed from its earlier estimate of 130 billion yen.
- Weaker sales, weather issues in the U.S., shipping slowdowns tied to the Middle East, and a write-down on battery-EV assets were all cited by the company.
- In Tokyo, shares slipped 1.63% at the close, hitting their lowest point so far this year.
Subaru Corp. slashed its profit forecast for the fiscal year ended March 31, blaming a write-down on electric-vehicle assets and shipping delays triggered by Middle East tensions. The company now expects operating profit to drop to roughly a tenth of what it booked the prior year.
Why pay attention? Subaru’s final earnings are set for May 15, and this marks the second time the automaker has lowered its fiscal-year outlook. Reuters puts the new net profit estimate at 90 billion yen, a 73.4% plunge from last year and well off the previous 125 billion yen target.
Subaru takes most of its revenue from North America—roughly 70%, according to its own risk disclosures. So when a cold snap gripped the U.S., sales softened, and shipping delays cropped up overseas, the blow struck right where it hurts.
The company slashed its operating profit outlook to 40 billion yen, down from the previous 130 billion yen. It also pared back its revenue projection to 4.78 trillion yen, a slight drop from 4.80 trillion yen, and reduced its profit before tax estimate to 107 billion yen from 180 billion yen, according to the filing.
Subaru took another look at the recoverable value of its battery electric vehicle development assets, prompted by a shift in U.S. auto environmental regulations—and a fresh take on mid- and long-term demand for electrified cars. The automaker flagged an impairment; that’s an accounting charge for assets that aren’t likely to recoup their book value.
Subaru attributed the revision to lower sales volumes after the U.S. cold wave, along with slowing vessel operations for international shipments as Middle East tensions escalated. According to Jiji Press via Yahoo Finance, shipments bound for the United States faced delays.
Subaru slashed its operating profit guidance to 40 billion yen, down sharply from the earlier 130 billion yen estimate—a drop of 90.1% compared to last year, Kyodo News reported. The automaker left its dividend outlook steady.
Subaru dropped 38.5 yen, sliding 1.63% to finish at 2,319.5 yen in Tokyo. Shares earlier hit 2,247.5 yen—their weakest point of the year. The stock has slipped nearly every session over the last two weeks.
This isn’t a one-off hit. Back on May 8, Toyota Motor flagged that fallout from the Iran war would carve 670 billion yen out of this year’s results, blaming pricier materials, shipping snags and slumping sales. “Fuel costs, transportation expenses,” and other assembly costs are already reflecting the strain, according to Toyota accounting group officer Takanori Azuma. Over at Honda Motor, Reuters—citing Nikkei—said the automaker was bracing for a full-year operating loss, dragged down by its EV business. Reuters
Subaru’s revised outlook hangs on factors that can shift rapidly—shipping lanes, demand from U.S. buyers, changing environmental regulations, and how EV-related assets are valued. The automaker noted it built its forecast using the latest available data, warning that actual outcomes might turn out differently.
