Melbourne, May 13, 2026, 07:35 AEST
- BHP’s shares on the ASX climbed to a new high of A$60.23, finishing the session up 2.49% at A$59.78. The gains stood out as the wider Australian market moved lower.
- Copper did the heavy lifting here; miners climbed, but banks, healthcare, and tech names pulled the ASX 200 down.
- Bulls are calling copper’s outlook straightforward for growth. Bears, though, point to drawn-out timelines, pricier energy, and say major projects come with plenty of execution risk.
BHP Group surged, grabbing the spotlight in a lackluster Australian session. Shares broke through A$60 for the first time, reached as high as A$60.23, and finished at A$59.78—a gain of 2.49% for the day. The ASX 200 didn’t keep pace, dropping 0.4% as losses in banks, healthcare, and tech stocks dragged the index lower.
There’s not much mystery here, but the change is big. Copper has gone from a bit player at BHP to the linchpin in the valuation story—and now, the chart’s reflecting that. COMEX copper futures are up 8.81% for the month, sitting at roughly US$6.51 a pound. Iron ore, by comparison, hovered around US$111.40 a tonne. According to IG, BHP surged to a new record, with Rio Tinto also reaching a high and Fortescue moving higher.
BHP isn’t just about China or iron ore anymore. For the first time, copper delivered 51% of its underlying EBITDA, as the company outlined in its half-year numbers. The miner also raised its copper output forecast for FY26 to between 1.9 million and 2.0 million tonnes, while reporting a 25% jump in underlying EBITDA to US$15.5 billion.
The company’s latest update underscored that trend. Speaking at Bank of America’s metals and mining conference, CEO-elect Brandon Craig noted BHP has lifted copper production targets for the next two years—even as sector-wide supply stays tight—giving it greater leverage to copper’s positive momentum. Craig flagged Escondida’s new concentrator permit filing and the Resolution Copper land exchange as recent steps forward.
That’s part of the reason the stock managed to climb even as much of the market lagged. Investors weren’t chasing every cyclical name—just those with real, sizeable copper exposure. Rio Tinto moved up as well; Capstone Copper logged gains. Fortescue’s lift reflected iron ore demand, but BHP, with its heavier copper weighting, stood out for its clearer story.
Bulls see real upside here. BHP offers deep reserves, a sturdy balance sheet—management’s words—and its commodity lineup plays right into trends like electrification, data centers, and grid upgrades. CFO Vandita Pant told Reuters, “Investors like electrification like AI, but they don’t want to pick winners,” noting the upstream appeal as “copper is a bottleneck.” Reuters
The bear argument kicks off at the same point. With copper now pulling the strings for BHP, the stock’s fortunes are tied closer than ever to any sudden swing in copper prices—much more so than in its iron ore days. The challenge of big, lumbering projects also hangs over the company. Back in February, management stood by the WAIO productivity push and Jansen potash in an analyst call, but they also flagged that fresh Jansen capital expenditure numbers are coming later this year.
The macro cost story isn’t going away. Australia’s market slipped again, down for a third straight session as traders kept an eye on the federal budget. Oil’s climb and shaky risk appetite weighed on rate-sensitive names. Miners aren’t spared: even with firmer commodity prices, rising costs for energy and consumables threaten to chip away at margins. That’s why BHP’s reputation for low costs matters—though it doesn’t make the company bulletproof.
Short-term action in the prediction markets hasn’t pushed back on copper’s surge. Kalshi’s copper contracts put the odds at 55% that prices hold above US$6.35 a pound come May 29, with a 34% shot at topping US$6.41. It’s a read on near-term sentiment rather than a longer view, but traders are still pricing in a decent likelihood that copper sticks close to these highs through month-end.
The stock’s cushion for missteps has narrowed. BHP hit a record close, a sign that investors are betting it can translate copper’s rally into more cash, dividends, and measured expansion. Up ahead, though, it’s not really about copper’s appeal anymore. The real hurdle: Can BHP keep production climbing without rising costs, permit snags, or delays cutting into gains?
