Sydney, May 13, 2026, 08:08 (AEST)
- Northern Star finished Tuesday at A$21.42, rising 3.23%. The gain followed a sluggish previous session, with traders zeroed in on gold-miner leverage.
- Two things powered the rally. First, resources outperformed while the ASX was open; second, the company got a lift from cash flow momentum, steadier guidance, and a fresh A$500 million buyback.
- Opinions remain divided: bulls point to a cheap major gold name with possible project catalysts, while bears focus on KCGM mill timing, persistent cost issues, and uneasy rates.
Northern Star Resources jumped 3.23% to A$21.42 on Tuesday, erasing its 1.94% retreat from Monday. Shares traded up to A$21.71, with some 6.62 million changing hands—hardly a muted session. The move wasn’t triggered by new headlines; instead, buyers circled back to gold stocks after a rough patch for the name.
The wider market offered some support. Heading into the afternoon, the ASX 200 was still sliding, but Market Index flagged “incredibly strong” action in resources—gold snapped higher locally, with other commodities pushing up too. That’s key for Northern Star, which stands out as a go-to large-cap for traders chasing gold margins on the ASX. If the gold trade heats up, NST usually sees interest pick up quickly. Market Index
But here’s the rub—and it’s a big one. As global trading rolled on, the mood soured for gold: spot prices dropped 1.2%, landing at US$4,678.49 per ounce. The culprit? Rising oil stoked inflation jitters, which in turn pushed back hopes for easier rates. TD Securities’ Bart Melek summed up the dynamic: gold’s slip reflected mounting speculation that central banks could keep policy tight for a while yet.
The lure for buyers? Northern Star’s latest figures speak for themselves. For the March quarter, the company moved 381,000 ounces of gold, posting an all-in sustaining cost (AISC) of A$2,709 per ounce. That’s the industry’s go-to metric—rolling in both operating costs and the funds required to keep the mines humming. Underlying free cash flow reached A$301 million for the period, while cash and bullion on hand totaled A$1.18 billion.
On the call, management sounded defensive, though hardly defeated. Chief executive Stuart Tonkin described how the company is “prioritizing cash flow at KCGM,” fast-tracking higher-grade Golden Pike feed even as the old mill stays a bottleneck. That’s a crucial distinction. Investors aren’t here for just any ounces—they want to see Kalgoorlie run smoother after that rocky start to 2026. Investing
This buyback falls under the broader repair strategy. Northern Star has the green light to repurchase as much as A$500 million in shares over the next 12 months, starting around April 23—though that’s contingent on how the market shapes up. Tonkin pointed to “compelling value” in the current share price as the reason behind the program. Still, management isn’t promising they’ll hit the full buyback limit. Reducing share count can lift earnings per share; it does nothing for a troubled mill.
The mill still sits at the core of the stock story. Northern Star trimmed its FY26 group output forecast to more than 1.5 million ounces. As for KCGM, sales are now pegged at 450,000 to 480,000 ounces—a slide from the previous 520,000-550,000 ounce estimate. AISC guidance is unchanged at A$2,600 to A$2,800 per ounce, despite softer sales and projected increases in diesel costs. The KCGM mill expansion, according to the company, remains scheduled for early FY27 commissioning.
Peers rallied too, flagging a sector-wide move rather than a Northern Star one-off. Evolution Mining picked up 2.78% at A$13.32, Newmont’s ASX shares tacked on 4.37% to A$165.79, and Bellevue Gold ran up 4.98% to A$1.685. Investors wanted exposure across the board to Australian gold plays, but Northern Star’s rebound stood out—its March cut had set up more space for a snapback.
Bulls point to Northern Star’s scale, strong cash flow, an active buyback, plus a pair of big growth drivers: KCGM and Hemi. Tyger Fitzpatrick at Morningstar Australia flagged a note from global mining analyst Jon Mills, who sees Northern Star as the cheapest stock among the ASX-listed gold miners he tracks. Kalgoorlie is set to contribute a significant chunk of future production, while Hemi could tack on another 500,000 ounces by 2030.
The bearish case cuts to the chase. Morningstar’s analysis puts ASX gold miners trading well above what’s justified if you use long-term gold prices, and Northern Star? Still “materially overvalued” if gold slides back to midcycle. There’s KCGM throughput uncertainty, rising fuel costs, and a guidance track record investors remember all too well—the stock’s margin for error looks tight. Morningstar
Rate bets are still weighing on the gold trade. Over at Kalshi, odds ran about 96% for the Fed holding steady this June, and traders assigned roughly a 61% chance to no U.S. rate cuts at all in 2026. Polymarket lined up close to that view: “No change” for June hovered near 98%, while the probability of zero cuts in 2026 was sitting around 63%. Gold itself doesn’t generate yield, so every uptick in rates just makes it a tougher hold—this is the macro squeeze behind any miner rally now. Kalshi
Tuesday’s action actually stuck, though the move itself was anything but tidy. Northern Star’s chart picked up as buyers came in for the cash flow, resource quality, and a buyback flag—especially after the tough reset on expectations. But for the rally to stick, gold has to hold its ground against a potential rate-driven pullback, and Northern Star must show progress at KCGM, moving past talk and into execution.
