London, May 13, 2026, 09:13 (BST)
- Glencore shares jumped to a new 52-week high with copper sitting close to all-time records, making the stock a direct play on the intensifying metals squeeze.
- Glencore shares are catching a bid after its April update. The miner posted a 19% jump in Q1 copper output, but management left 2026 production guidance steady.
- Bulls point to copper leverage and a trading desk primed for turbulence. Bears focus on coal risk, pricier inputs, and scant M&A support: Polymarket odds of a Glencore-Rio Tinto merger announcement by June 30 sit at just 1%.
Glencore zeroed in on copper today, pushing everything else to the backseat. Shares in London kicked off at 580p, jumped to 593.50p—a fresh 52-week high per Google Finance. Investing.com pegged Glencore at 589.40p, well above yesterday’s 573.40p close, so the stock was up close to 3% early on.
Not surprising to see this move. Copper futures traded near $6.64 a pound, up roughly 1.6%. Prices touched $6.69 during the session, hitting a 52-week high. Simply put, the market’s bidding up future copper deliveries on the view that supply’s scarce, and demand isn’t letting up.
The “why now” angle stands out—this isn’t your typical commodity rebound. Copper’s surge reflects a mix of supply snarls, aggressive data-center growth, electrification trends, and a new wrinkle: concerns over sulphuric acid supply, crucial for some copper processing steps. MarketWatch pointed to JPMorgan’s Greg Shearer, who flagged sparse Chinese copper inventories—a sign that buyers are running lean. MarketWatch
Glencore isn’t just about copper—even if that’s how the market’s reading it today. Reuters calls the firm a producer and marketer, handling everything from copper, cobalt, and nickel to coal and ferroalloys, backed by a global commodities trading operation. That trading business isn’t just window dressing; when markets go sideways, it can profit from the chaos, not only from the mines.
Investors got a clear update from the company on April 30. Glencore reported own-sourced copper production jumped 19% to 199,600 tonnes in the first quarter, citing improved grades at its African copper operations and solid throughput and grades from Antamina. “Largely in line with our expectations,” CEO Gary Nagle commented. Full-year guidance stays put. Glencore
Margins got a boost in the same update. Glencore pointed to firmer prices so far this year for copper, zinc, and energy coal—enough, it said, to more than make up for increased costs. On top of that, if Q1’s pace in marketing holds, full-year Adjusted EBIT would end up higher than the upper end of its usual $2.3 billion to $3.5 billion range. Adjusted EBIT, Glencore’s preferred measure for the trading arm, strips out certain items and focuses on profit before interest and tax.
The bullish argument is straightforward: stronger copper prices, plus improved copper output, play right into Glencore’s strengths. That marketing book? It tends to shine when shipping, acid, fuel, and metals markets go off-script. For its 2025 results, Glencore highlighted adjusted EBITDA for the second half at $8.1 billion—a 49% jump over the first half—driven by firmer metals prices and a lift in production, copper standing out. EBITDA, or earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization, gives a rough snapshot of operating cash profit.
The downside is spelled out in the same report. Glencore’s adjusted EBITDA for 2025 slipped 6% over the year—coal prices dragging it down. On its 2025 scorecard, adjusted EBITDA from energy coal cratered 55%, and margins in steelmaking coal tightened. So, this isn’t just about copper. The company’s fortunes still ride on coal cycles, mine timing, diesel, acid, and capex.
The rally wasn’t limited to Glencore—Anglo American jumped 4.49% and Rio Tinto added 3.48% in London trading, according to Google Finance. BHP shares set fresh records as copper edged up near $6.6 a pound. Moves like these from Rio, BHP, Anglo and Glencore signal a shift in the market’s view on the metal itself, rather than any one company’s leadership.
M&A chatter isn’t moving the needle. Polymarket’s contract tracking a Glencore-Rio Tinto deal announcement by June 30 has just a 1% “Yes” chance, with about $40,490 in volume. That tells you something: no one’s pricing Glencore for an imminent buyout. The bet here is still copper, and leverage to it. Polymarket
Rio’s actions tell the story. After the Glencore merger talks fizzled, Reuters reported last week that Rio Tinto is eyeing a bigger stake in McEwen Copper’s Los Azules project in Argentina—no small prize, as it’s one of the world’s top undeveloped copper sites. This is all about locking in copper reserves. Glencore stands out: few big London-listed players have the tricky mix of copper, coal, and trading heft to complicate matters.
No secret behind today’s rally: copper’s surge is driving numbers straight through a diversified miner’s P&L. High copper pricing could widen margins quicker than expenses creep up. Still, the shares are sitting at a fresh high, and there’s the coal overhang, heavy spending requirements, and the ever-present threat of a sharp commodity pullback.
