Sydney, May 16, 2026, 07:05 (AEST)
- Lynas closed at A$17.95 on Friday, up after falling on Thursday.
- Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade chief, said there’s been some progress on China’s rare earth exports, but noted some approvals are still lagging.
- Prediction markets are pricing in low odds for Trump and Xi to reach a quick deal on rare-earths.
Lynas Rare Earths Limited traded flat at A$17.95 on Friday after sliding 9.8% in the previous session. The company drew attention again as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said China is “dragging its feet” on some rare earth export licences, despite a reported uptick in shipments from China. Market data showed no change in the stock, Reuters reported.
Why it matters: Rare earths—17 metals crucial to magnets, EVs, electronics, and defense—are still at the center of the U.S.-China trade fight. Reuters reported this week that China’s heavy rare earth exports, like yttrium, dysprosium, and terbium, are stuck at about 50% of what they were before restrictions. That’s even as total rare earth shipments have bounced back.
Lynas faces pressure as Beijing keeps rare-earths tight. Supply routes away from China look more attractive, but if the U.S. and China settle trade issues for good, rare-earths might lose pricing power. Traders on Polymarket see an 18% chance China lifts rare-earth export curbs before May 22, and put the odds of a wider tariff deal at 21% by May 31.
Lynas is the biggest rare earths producer outside China, with mining in Australia and processing in Malaysia. Earlier this month, CEO Amanda Lacaze said new rules from the U.S. and Europe are starting to shift buyer behavior. “Changed purchasing decisions” are showing up from customers adjusting to new sourcing mandates, Lacaze said. Reuters
Lynas gave a clearer update on its business in the latest quarter, with gross sales revenue for March jumping to A$265 million, more than twice last year’s number. Rare earth oxide output reached 3,233 metric tons, up 69%. The company said average prices for neodymium-praseodymium, or NdPr, climbed 25% quarter-on-quarter.
Policy is in focus. MP Materials stands out as the operator of the only rare earths mine in North America, and is boosted by U.S. government price support. Lynas is larger when it comes to separation outside China, supplying customers in Asia and the West.
Lynas secured stable demand out of the U.S. earlier this year. The company’s U.S. unit signed a binding letter of intent in March with the Pentagon to supply rare earth oxide. The deal guarantees about $96 million, setting the minimum contract price at $110 per kilo of NdPr oxide.
Lynas is set to ship 5,000 tonnes of NdPr a year to Japan after changing its deal with Japan Australia Rare Earths. The miner also promised Japanese industries 75% of its heavy rare earth oxide output. That supply deal will now last until 2038.
Politics can shift fast and catch the sector flat-footed. If China loosens its grip on exports, prices might drop and Lynas could end up with extra capacity before it’s needed. No change from China means buyers are still locked in, but Lynas keeps dealing with higher input costs and ongoing execution questions. Malaysia handed Lynas a new 10-year licence but told it to end radioactive waste processing by 2031. That overhang remains.
Lynas is being watched as more than just a regular mining stock now. Investors view it as a live test. The main question is whether governments will spend the money and if buyers will stay loyal to develop rare earth supply chains that avoid China.
