NEW YORK, May 31, 2026, 16:04 EDT
Novavax Inc. (NVAX) heads into the week after a jump over four sessions. U.S. markets were closed over the weekend. The stock finished Friday at $10.97, up 6.3% that day, gaining around 19% since May 22. Nasdaq stayed shut Monday for Memorial Day, so trading will run on a shorter schedule.
This matters now because the U.S. Food and Drug Administration told approved COVID-19 vaccine makers Friday that shots for the 2026-2027 season should use the JN.1-lineage XFG variant in a monovalent vaccine — a single-strain shot.
Novavax and Sanofi now have a more solid fall goal. Over the last year, investors have looked at Novavax more as a licensing and partner-execution trade than a COVID sales play. Sanofi told FDA advisers it started making an XFG protein-based COVID vaccine for 2026-27. The protein-based vaccine uses a protein antigen instead of mRNA instructions.
Novavax shares had a choppy week. The stock climbed 13.6% Tuesday, then tacked on another 6.0% Wednesday. It slipped 6.9% Thursday. On Friday it rebounded as the Nasdaq Composite added 0.2%. Novavax traded around 7.2 million shares Friday, above its recent 50-day average, according to market data.
Novavax-Sanofi’s protein-based shot competes directly with mRNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna, according to FDA documents and Reuters. But Reuters said the Novavax-Sanofi shot takes more time to make than its mRNA rivals. Reuters also reported all approved vaccine makers said they could deliver an XFG vaccine for the next season.
Novavax is under the microscope after its first-quarter report. Revenue for the quarter landed at $140 million, a 79% drop from last year, with $97 million of that coming in from licensing, royalties and other sources. CEO John C. Jacobs said Novavax made “significant progress executing our corporate strategy,” pointing to Matrix-M licensing deals and new material transfer agreements. Matrix-M is Novavax’s adjuvant, meant to boost immune response. Novavax Investor Relations
Novavax is sticking with its adjusted revenue outlook for 2026 at $230 million to $270 million. This excludes some Sanofi supply sales, royalties and milestones. Sanofi is set to handle commercial operations for the 2026-2027 COVID season in certain markets such as the U.S., the company said. Novavax expects to get royalties ranging from the high teens to low twenties percentage on Sanofi’s sales.
Global view: The European Medicines Agency on Friday said COVID shots for Europe’s 2026-27 season should preferably target XFG, which broadly lines up with the U.S. stance. EMA added that it could change that recommendation if the virus outlook changes.
But the risk isn’t minor. The FDA advisory panel voted despite worries over weak surveillance data. Panelist Anna Durbin from Johns Hopkins said, “We can’t make a recommendation if we don’t have data.” If XFG drops out, if vaccine demand remains sluggish, or if Sanofi has a soft fall, Novavax’s rally could stall fast.
First up is Monday’s test. Traders will find out if buyers are still there once all the FDA news is priced in. The more drawn-out part is bigger—watching if a better-defined strain target actually leads to more product, stronger uptake and real royalties. The company still needs to show its business model works after the pandemic.
