London, June 13, 2026, 17:03 (BST).
- National Grid closed Friday at 1,209.00p, up 0.08%, while the FTSE 100 rose 1.63%.
- Fitch’s June 11 rating page said National Grid’s credit profile had strengthened as regulated earnings rise, a key point for a debt-funded utility.
- The next scheduled catalyst is the July 14 AGM, followed by the July 23 final dividend payment; the bigger earnings test comes with half-year results on November 5.
National Grid plc shares ended the latest London session almost unchanged, closing at 1,209.00p after a 1.00p gain, or 0.08%, on Friday. That was a clear lag against the wider FTSE 100, which rose 1.63%, suggesting investors were not chasing the utility stock even as the broader UK market rallied. AJ Bell data showed volume of about 9.75 million shares, a market capitalisation near £60.16 billion, and a 52-week range of 1,000.00p to 1,428.50p.
The muted share move matters because National Grid is being valued on two competing ideas: steady regulated earnings on one side, and a very large investment and debt programme on the other. A June 11 Fitch page said the company’s credit profile had strengthened as regulated earnings rise and visibility improves; for a utility that must finance network upgrades with large borrowings, credit quality can affect the cost of debt and therefore future equity returns.
The bull case rests on the scale and predictability of National Grid’s regulated growth plan. In its May results, the company said it had delivered record capital investment of £11.6 billion, underlying EPS of 78.0p, up 8% at constant currency, and a 2025/26 dividend of 48.49p, up 3.8%. Underlying EPS means earnings per share excluding certain items that management treats as not reflecting the comparable operating performance of the business. Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich called the programme the “largest investment programme in our history,” with at least £70 billion of capital investment planned over five years. National Grid
The regulatory backdrop is central to the stock. Ofgem’s RIIO framework — Revenue, Incentives, Innovation and Outputs — sets how much network companies can earn while encouraging investment, reliability and customer outcomes; RIIO-T3, the transmission price control, runs from 2026 to 2031. National Grid says 2026/27 underlying EPS should rise 13% to 15% from the 2025/26 baseline as it moves from RIIO-T2 to RIIO-T3 and benefits from higher allowed revenue. Ofgem
The bear case is that growth is expensive. National Grid expects 2026/27 capital investment to rise about 10% to nearly £13 billion, net finance costs to be about £200 million higher, and net debt to increase by just over £6 billion from £44.2 billion at March 31, 2026. It also expects regulatory gearing — a debt measure based on net debt as a proportion of regulated asset value and related invested capital — to be around 64%. Those figures make delivery, interest rates and regulatory recovery the main risks for shareholders.
Analysts remain generally constructive but not unanimously bullish. Investing.com data based on 16 analysts showed a “Buy” consensus, with 8 buys, 6 holds and 2 sells; the average 12-month target was 1,369.06p, implying about 13.24% upside from the latest price, while recent individual calls included a Deutsche Bank downgrade to Hold on June 8 and Buy ratings from Morgan Stanley and Barclays in May. Investing
On the verified numbers, National Grid looks fairly valued to modestly attractive for income and regulated-growth investors, not a low-risk bargain. The 4.01% dividend yield offers support, and the analyst target range leaves room for upside, but the share price already reflects much of the long-term grid investment story. Investors now need evidence that higher allowed revenue can offset rising debt costs and that the company can execute the £70 billion programme without squeezing shareholder returns. The July 14 annual meeting and July 23 dividend payment are the next calendar events, while the November 5 half-year results should be the more important test of earnings, capex and balance-sheet progress. AJ Bell
