London, June 14, 2026, 15:18 (BST).
- UBS expects the FTSE 100 to hit 11,000 by late 2026 and 11,300 by mid-2027. Their bullish scenario puts the index at 12,300, but the downside case is 7,700.
- The index finished up 1.6% at 10,471.7 on Friday, the best close since May 27, driven by a rally in UK stocks after hopes for a U.S.-Iran peace deal.
FTSE 100 in focus as UBS boosts target, sees room for more gains UBS raised its forecast for the FTSE 100, saying London’s main index could keep rising through 2027 thanks to better earnings, cheaper shares and its mix of commodity companies. The Swiss bank’s base case now sees the FTSE at 11,000 by year-end and hitting 11,300 by June 2027. In a bullish scenario, UBS puts the index at 12,300—setting a new high for UK stocks.
UBS’s bullish outlook for the FTSE 100 hangs on stronger global growth, higher commodity prices, a weaker pound and more overseas capital flowing into UK assets. The bank’s downside scenario has the FTSE 100 dropping to 7,700 if trade tensions rise again, commodity prices slide, bond yields climb or if a firmer sterling cuts into the value of foreign earnings.
UK stocks ended the week up. The FTSE 100 climbed 1.6% to 10,471.7 on Friday. The FTSE 250 also added 1.6%. Traders cited growing hopes for a U.S.-Iran deal that sent crude prices down and boosted risk appetite. Reuters said most FTSE 350 sectors rose—with banks up 4.2% and travel and leisure ahead 3.9%. Energy shares dropped as oil fell more than 3%.
UBS equity strategist Matthew Gilman said UK stocks are still backed by “reasonable valuations,” noting the FTSE 100 is trading at 12.4 times forward earnings, a touch under the 12.8 times long-run median since 1990. UBS has raised its outlook for UK earnings growth this year to 11%, up from the earlier call for 5%. It sees about 10% growth in 2027, with commodity-driven profits and a better economy in the mix. Proactiveinvestors UK
Commodities have a big impact on the FTSE 100 because the index is packed with energy, mining, and global financial stocks, so it doesn’t really track the UK economy the way some investors think. LSEG’s FTSE Russell calls the FTSE 100 the top 100 blue-chip firms by market cap on the London Stock Exchange, with recent data putting HSBC, Shell, AstraZeneca, Unilever, Rolls-Royce, and BP among its largest listings by value.
Sterling weakness can give a lift to UK blue chips because FTSE 100 firms earn most of their revenue overseas, making foreign sales more valuable in pounds. UBS figures put that share at around 75% to 80%, according to Interactive Investor. That makes the index sensitive to currency swings when reporting earnings. But the effect flips if sterling climbs, UBS warns, as stronger sterling drags on those overseas revenues.
The outlook is connected to interest rates and inflation. A Reuters poll out Friday showed all 65 economists polled think the Bank of England will keep Bank Rate at 3.75% on June 18. Still, almost 40% see at least one more hike this year. Deutsche Bank’s Sanjay Raja told Reuters, “the odds of a rate rise are increasing,” mentioning the length of the energy shock and tough price pressures. Reuters
UBS still sees some upside for London shares, but concerns over the market’s structure are sticking around. Flutter Entertainment said Friday it plans to leave the London Stock Exchange in August, keeping its main listing in New York. The company blamed weak trading volumes and regulatory burden for the move, putting more heat on the UK’s listing scene. The key level here is 12,300—that would hint global investors want to pay up for UK blue chips again, but only if earnings, sterling, commodities and bonds shift London’s way.
