Melbourne, June 15, 2026, 08:04 AEST — REA Group shares slid to a 52-week low. Citi analysts raised concerns about a potential housing tax risk, prompting the move.
- REA Group finished Friday at A$143.00. The shares dipped to A$140.02 during the session, hitting their 52-week low.
- Citi lowered its price target and forecast for FY27 profit, saying the planned negative gearing and capital gains tax changes could put pressure on listing volumes.
- REA’s next big event is its FY26 result and annual report in August. Investors are expected to watch for new listing-volume trends and any guidance for FY27.
REA Group shares started the week on the back foot after closing at A$143.00 Friday, down 2.81% on the day and nearly 10% lower over the past week. The drop came even as the ASX 200 was in positive territory. Reuters said REA hit an intraday low of A$140.02, its weakest price since July 2023, and off as much as 4.8% at one stage.
Citi dropped its price target on REA by 10% to A$181.15 and kept a buy, also cutting its FY27 NPAT estimate by 6%. NPAT is the profit left for shareholders after tax, which feeds into valuation and dividend models. Citi flagged risk from plans to shake up negative gearing and capital gains tax, saying property-listing turnover could fall in FY27.
REA faces policy risk because most of its revenue comes from property ads, so when there are fewer homes for sale, ad volumes can drop. Negative gearing lets investors offset rental losses with other income. Capital gains tax is charged on profits from investments. Treasury says negative gearing on residential property will be limited to new homes from July 1, 2027. The 50% CGT discount will be replaced with inflation-adjusted rules and a 30% minimum tax on capital gains.
Policy uncertainty is a risk for REA’s premium valuation just as the company’s buyback wraps up. REA said in an ASX filing on June 12 it finished its on-market buyback after picking up 1,257,405 shares for a total price of A$199,999,934.31. Buybacks can prop up EPS because they shrink the share count, but after they end, that extra demand disappears.
REA’s bulls point to its strong core. In the March quarter, REA posted A$398 million in revenue, a 6% gain from last year, with operating EBITDA at A$220 million, up 11%. EBITDA—earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation—is a commonly used profit metric. Australian residential revenue climbed 12%. National Buy listings edged up 1%. realestate.com.au pulled in 12.9 million average monthly users, the company said in its Q3 release, according to .
Valuation is tougher to nail down. According to Google Finance, REA trades at about 33 times earnings, so investors are still paying close to A$33 for every A$1 of yearly EPS, even with the recent drop. Consensus stays positive; Investing.com lists 15 analysts with an average 12-month price target of A$194.65 and a buy call. Morningstar’s Roy Van Keulen set fair value at A$129 back in May, calling the stock “materially overvalued” at the time. Google
REA is trading much nearer to its 52-week low than its A$265.98 high, which could appeal to long-term buyers betting on the company’s market position and pricing strength. But the stock still comes with policy risk, housing cycle pressure, and valuation questions. Citi now says FY27 listings could drop 5% year on year. That puts the focus on listing numbers, the FY27 outlook, and the August full-year report for the next move.
