Sydney, June 17, 2026, 09:04 AEST
- Origin Energy last traded at A$10.94 on Tuesday, up 1.96%, before the ASX cash market’s Wednesday open.
- The S&P/ASX 200 edged up 0.04% to 8,917.7 on Tuesday as energy stocks rose 1.10% after the RBA held rates at 4.35%.
- Investors are weighing stronger power-market earnings hopes against gas-policy risk and Origin’s lower Octopus Energy guidance.
Origin Energy shares are set to start Wednesday from a firmer base after rising 1.96% to A$10.94 in the previous session, a gain that put the stock back into positive territory for the week as the local energy sector recovered. The ASX cash market was still in pre-open at the dateline, with normal trading starting shortly before 10 a.m. Sydney time.
The move matters because Origin sits across several live trades at once: retail power margins, liquefied natural gas, or LNG, exposure through Australia Pacific LNG, and the rate-sensitive utility trade. The broader S&P/ASX 200 closed just 3.7 points higher at 8,917.7 on Tuesday, but energy rose 1.10% and utilities gained 0.68%, giving Origin a better tape than many industrial and consumer stocks.
The Reserve Bank of Australia held its cash rate, the main policy rate for the economy, at 4.35%, after three earlier increases this year. It also kept a tightening bias. Cameron Curko, chief investment officer at Pitcher Partners, said the central bank remained focused on inflation pressure tied to the oil shock from the Iran conflict, while KCM Trade’s Tim Waterer said the market was “taking a breather” as investors waited for more detail on the Strait of Hormuz. Business Recorder
Origin’s bounce was not a clean breakout. MarketScreener data showed the stock up 0.46% over five days but still down 4.79% for the year, with 4.43 million shares changing hands on Tuesday. That leaves the stock well off the stronger levels it held earlier in 2026.
Peers gave investors a guide. Woodside Energy rose 1.66% to A$29.95 and Santos gained 1.22% to A$7.48 as WTI crude stabilised above $80 after a sharp fall, IG said. Origin is less of a pure oil-and-gas name than those two, but the same oil, LNG and domestic gas-policy swings still feed into sentiment around the stock.
The more direct earnings question is electricity. Jefferies said in a late-May note that Energy Markets earnings for both AGL Energy and Origin should remain in line with expectations for fiscal 2026, with possible upside if wholesale power-price volatility lifts in June. The broker forecast Origin EBITDA — earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a common profit measure — at A$1.68 billion, 1.8% above the midpoint of guidance, and had a buy rating with a A$13.04 price target.
Origin’s last quarterly update was more mixed. Australia Pacific LNG production fell to 164.5 petajoules in the March quarter, while revenue was lower at A$1.86 billion; electricity sales volumes rose 4% from a year earlier, helped by business demand, but gas volumes fell 32%. Chief Executive Frank Calabria said Australia’s domestic electricity and gas markets had stayed “well supplied and largely insulated” from global price swings, though Origin cut its expected FY26 share of Octopus Energy EBITDA to a range of a A$70 million loss to a A$30 million profit.
Gas policy is the other overhang. The government’s plan would require east-coast LNG exporters to reserve 20% of gas for the domestic market from July 2027, with Origin, Shell and Santos-linked projects affected, Reuters reported. Consultation on the final design is expected through June and July 2026, leaving the detail live for investors.
But the rebound can fade. If the gas reservation rules lower expected LNG returns, if wholesale electricity volatility does not help margins, or if Octopus losses land at the weaker end of guidance, Tuesday’s rise may look thin. Australian Energy Producers chief Samantha McCulloch warned the gas plan could “crowd out smaller domestic producers,” a sign that industry opposition will not go away quickly. S&P Global
Analysts are not all leaning one way. MarketScreener’s consensus table showed 11 analysts with a mean hold rating on Origin, an average target price of A$12.19, a high target of A$13.60 and a low of A$10.40. That range captures the trade now: some upside if power margins and energy demand hold, but not much room for fresh policy or execution setbacks.
