London, June 19, 2026, 15:04 BST
- Admiral was last seen trading around 3,240 pence, off 3.6%. The shares hit an intraday low earlier at 3,156 pence.
- RBC dropped its rating to “sector perform” and slashed its 12-month target to 3,450 pence. The bank now sees 2026 group pretax profit dropping 8%. Investing
- Admiral’s UK motor business made over £1 billion profit in 2025, its best year so far. The downgrade comes after that record result.
Admiral Group dropped as much as 5.8% by midday Friday after RBC Capital Markets said slower UK motor pricing would drag out the impact on the insurer’s earnings. That compared with a 0.3% slip for the FTSE 100. The shares later clawed back some of the losses.
RBC cut its rating on Admiral to “sector perform” from “outperform”, saying it now sees the shares performing in line with other insurers. The broker also trimmed its 2026 UK motor profit forecast by 5%. It is now looking for an 8% drop in group pretax profit from last year. Morningstar
The bank said cuts to premiums in early 2025 are still making their way into reported revenue as those policies earn out. It bumped its estimate for its first-half combined ratio to 85.6%, up from 83.6%. The combined ratio tracks claims and expenses versus premiums—anything under 100% means an underwriting gain.
The latest industry numbers back up those worries. The average UK motor premium came in at £560 for the first quarter, down £20 from the same period last year. At the same time, vehicle repair payouts hit £1.9 billion. Accidental-damage claims averaged £3,699, up 8% on the previous quarter. Chris Bose, general-insurance director at the Association of British Insurers, said, “the sustained high costs of repairs continue to be a concern.” Abi
Admiral posted higher profit for the year. Pretax profit from continuing operations was up 16% at £957.9 million in 2025. Earnings per share climbed 16%. The annual dividend rose 7% to 205 pence. Chief Executive Milena Mondini de Focatiis said UK motor “delivered an exceptional performance, surpassing £1 billion of profit.” Admiral Group Plc
Admiral is coming up against a tough comparison with last year’s record. Group turnover dipped about 1% last year, and UK motor turnover dropped 7% as Admiral cut rates and sold more renewals at lower average premiums. Investors are focusing less on last year’s profit releases and more on the new business coming into the books.
Aviva closed its Direct Line deal in July 2025, bringing together a bigger personal-lines competitor with motor insurance offered through both direct and broker channels. The new scale doesn’t mean lower prices for customers, but Aviva can now spread out tech, claims and marketing costs over more customers. Competition has picked up.
But analysts warn that the hit could be worse than a single broker’s call. EY puts the UK motor sector’s combined ratio at about £1.11 in claims and expenses for every £1 of premium by 2026. If repair costs keep rising and the fight for customers stays heated, Admiral faces a trade-off: hold share or protect margin.
Admiral pushed further into commercial motor on June 1, closing its takeover of telemetry fleet insurer Flock. The move gives Admiral another shot at growth. But for now, shares may stay stuck unless premium hikes clearly get ahead of claims inflation instead of chasing it.
