Sydney, June 22, 2026, 03:06 (AEST)
- The S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.3% for the week to June 19.
- Investors are watching for May inflation numbers on Wednesday, then jobs data drops Thursday.
- BHP lifted the Jansen Stage 2 price tag to US$6.9 billion, up from its earlier US$4.9 billion estimate. The higher bill puts miners back in the spotlight.
Australian shares start the week with traders watching for new inflation and jobs data to guide the next move. The S&P/ASX 200 gave up ground Friday, ending down 0.92% at 8,828.7 after miners slumped and pulled the index lower, wiping out early gains.
The releases are in focus after the Reserve Bank of Australia kept rates at 4.35% last week. That followed three hikes earlier this year. The central bank repeated that inflation is “still too high” and kept the door open to more tightening if demand and prices don’t cool. Reserve Bank of Australia
AMP’s Shane Oliver, who runs investment strategy and is chief economist, is calling for May consumer prices to drop 0.4% from April, helped by a 15% slide in fuel. He sees annual inflation at 4.3%. Trimmed-mean inflation, which knocks out the wildest price moves, is set at 0.3% for May and 3.5% on the year. Oliver said the oil shock may be done, but said, “the risk of further falls remains high.” Amp
Labour data is out Thursday. Jobs dropped by 18,600 in April and unemployment hit 4.5%, a level not seen since late 2021. Another weak number would back the idea that higher rates are cooling demand. But a strong bounce could keep the RBA’s worries about inflation going.
Interest-rate swaps put the odds of an August hike at about one in four and show close to a two-in-three chance of another increase before year-end. Property trusts, growth names, and consumer stocks are in the spotlight as Wednesday’s underlying inflation number approaches.
Weekend fuel-tax relief in Australia gets extended, keeping a 16 cent-per-litre discount in place from July 1 to August 2. The move clips around A$11 off filling up a standard 65-litre tank. This won’t show in Wednesday’s May inflation print, but it does blunt some of the July rise in petrol prices.
BHP shares slid 5.6% to A$61.40 on Friday after the mining giant warned of a Jansen charge and higher costs to build out its project, marking its worst day since April 2025. “The market was reacting sharply to the immediate capital intensity,” said William Taylor, chief operating officer and portfolio manager at ETF Shares. Mining stocks entered the week dealing with these new headwinds. Reuters
The selling hit specific names, not the whole market. Rio Tinto and Fortescue both fell. Financials still managed to end the week up 1.4% and healthcare names did better than the rest. “Not a panic, but rather a buyers’ strike,” Moomoo strategist Michael McCarthy said about Friday’s session. Morningstar
Oil news and Middle East issues still move the Australian market fast. Tankers are running again through the Strait of Hormuz, oil is now under $80 a barrel. But with U.S.-Iran talks called off and uncertainty over how long the early deal lasts, energy and transport stocks could whip back fast.
Bulls need several factors to work their way. If the trimmed-mean runs hot, jobs data stay strong and oil ticks up again, traders might bring back bets on more rate hikes. That could hit high-valuation stocks and household spending. Softer numbers would help rate-sensitive sectors but could also fuel worries that growth is sliding faster than planned. The RBA has said itself that inflation might stick around even if activity drops.
Investors get another read on the RBA’s stance when Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks Wednesday afternoon, coming after the inflation print. Markets look set to split the week between commodities and BHP, with rates focus after.
