LONDON, June 22, 2026, 10:03 BST
- LSE: ANTO dropped 0.41% to 3,896p after tumbling 6.16% on Friday.
- Trading volume on Friday was more than double the recent average, making 3,900p the important level to watch in the near term.
- Copper ticked up, but investors want to see if Antofagasta can actually deliver on its pledged production recovery.
Antofagasta plc (LSE: ANTO) slipped 0.41% to 3,896p by 10:03 BST on Monday, after dropping 6.16% on Friday as metal miners came under pressure and the market waited for signs of a production rebound into 2026. Copper stood close to $6.33 a pound, ticking up 0.12%, but that small move didn’t help the stock much. Antofagasta is still trading about 13% under its February top at 4,475p, with Friday’s heavy volume putting extra weight on the 3,900p level after the weak open.
For LSE: ANTO holders, Monday’s drop didn’t come after any new trading update or profit alert. Antofagasta’s site was still showing its May 7 AGM statements as the most recent news. So the move likely points to more weakness from Friday’s commodity reset, not anything new in terms of operations.
Friday was rough for Antofagasta, which dropped 6.16% while the FTSE 100 slipped just 0.35%. That’s a gap of 5.81 percentage points. Miners in Europe fell 2.1% as metals slid. Antofagasta’s volume hit 3.2 million shares, about 2.1 times its 50-day average of 1.5 million. That jump in selling and price doesn’t look like just routine profit taking.
The Antofagasta valuation fight got sharper after Berenberg last week lifted its target price to 4,400p from 3,700p. The broker kept its “hold” call. With shares at 3,896p on Monday, that target is about 12.9% up. But the stock’s big drop on heavy volume right after the new target suggests just assuming higher copper prices won’t move the needle. Investors want more—real output growth, cost discipline, and clearer expansion progress. MarketScreener
Antofagasta’s Q1 figures show why the company is staying cautious. Copper output dropped 7.6% year over year to 143,000 tonnes after processing and grade declined at both Los Pelambres and Centinela. Cash costs before by-product credits rose 17% to $2.77 a pound. Gold and molybdenum helped cushion the increase, with by-product credits more than doubling to $1.69 a pound. That brought net cash costs down 30% to $1.08 a pound.
Chief Executive Iván Arriagada said, “As we move through the year, we expect copper production to increase quarter-on-quarter.” Management tied the outlook to higher processing rates and better grades at Los Pelambres. Antofagasta said its big projects are still on schedule and on budget, with pre-commissioning started at the Centinela Second Concentrator. Antofagasta
Here’s the scale the market set on Monday. Take Antofagasta’s 650,000–700,000 tonne guidance—every $0.10-per-pound swing in copper prices moves annual gross copper-sales value by about $143 million–$154 million before factoring in ownership, treatment, provisional pricing or taxes. Copper rose just 0.12% Monday, less than a cent per pound, or about $11 million–$12 million by similar quick math. Friday’s 257p drop in shares wiped out around £2.5 billion in market value, calculated with 985.86 million shares out. The numbers aren’t like for like, but they explain why a small bounce in copper doesn’t close the gap left after a big hit to the stock.
The numbers behind Antofagasta look better than the latest chart. The company posted record 2025 EBITDA of $5.20 billion, up 52%, from revenue of $8.62 billion. EBITDA margin came in at 60.3%. Net debt is stable at 0.53 times EBITDA. Management kept 2026 production guidance at 650,000–700,000 tonnes, net cash-cost guidance at $1.15–$1.35 a pound, and capex guidance at $3.4 billion.
The balanced risk view sticks to 3,900p. A clean break under Friday’s 3,912p low would show initial support has given way, with trade running at more than double the usual volume. If shares make it back up to Thursday’s 4,169p close, that unwinds most of the drop. On the fundamental side, a bearish setup is a stronger dollar combined with weaker copper and no step-up in output again. On the other hand, Antofagasta’s low net cash costs from by-product credits help, and management says major projects are still on schedule. Stop-loss orders set near 3,900p can still get hit in normal mining-stock swings.
The key event is Antofagasta’s Q2 production report on July 15. Investors want to see output above Q1’s 143,000 tonnes, lower pre-credit costs, and both Centinela and Los Pelambres still on track. Monday’s small move in copper isn’t the focus. What matters is that report—whether it turns 3,900p into a new floor or shows it can’t hold.
This article is for information only. It’s not investment advice or a recommendation, and it isn’t an offer to buy or sell any securities. Share prices and commodities can move fast—capital loss is possible. Do your own research and check your finances and risk before making any investment calls.
