BHP (ASX:BHP) share price falls again as Jansen costs test capital discipline

BHP shares to watch Wednesday as port strike threat drops, Jansen impact stays

June 23, 2026

Melbourne, June 24, 2026, 02:10 AEST

BHP Group shares are back in focus as Sydney markets open Wednesday. Unions have paused plans for a strike at Port Hedland, which cuts the chance of a near-term threat to BHP’s iron ore shipments. On Tuesday, BHP put forward a draft enterprise agreement, but unions said the gap between the parties remains wide.

The stock ended Tuesday down 42 cents at A$59.92, a drop of 0.7%. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.33% to 8,787 as tech names retreated and miners slid with lower commodities. The ASX cash market was shut at the time of publication, so traders will see the full reaction to the labour reprieve at Wednesday’s open.

Port Hedland is key for iron-ore exports, so any stoppage could disrupt shipments from the major Australian port. Electrical workers there have been preparing for strikes after pay negotiations dragged on for months.

BHP shares dropped 5.6% to A$61.40 on Friday after the company announced another cost overrun at its Jansen potash project in Canada. The news pushed Australia’s materials sector more than 4% lower, adding to a broader valuation challenge despite some labour relief.

BHP Australia chief Geraldine Slattery said the company put forward a draft deal and is still talking with representatives. “We’re committed to negotiation and bargaining at Port Hedland,” Slattery said. Stockopedia

Iron-ore futures in Asia dropped 0.6% to US$97.65 a tonne in afternoon trading Tuesday, marking a four-month low. Fortescue lost 1.35% and Rio Tinto edged down 0.24% by then. The drop linked BHP’s slide to the wider Pilbara producer pullback. The rest of the commodity board gave up little support.

BHP is now guiding for Jansen Stage 2 to cost US$6.9 billion, up from US$4.9 billion, and doesn’t see first production until late fiscal 2031. The company plans to record a US$2.3 billion impairment, cutting the asset’s value on the books. Stage 1’s timeline is still mid-2027 for first output.

BHP’s CEO-elect Brandon Craig said Jansen is “an important pillar” of the miner’s plans and expects the combined project will be a low-cost, long-life asset. Craig takes over from Mike Henry on July 1. Bhp

William Taylor, chief operating officer and portfolio manager at ETF Shares, said Jansen still looks good for the long run, but “the market is reacting sharply to the immediate capital intensity.” Capital intensity means the big upfront cash needed before a project can start producing returns. Reuters

But risks remain, just in a different form. Roughly 450 Port Hedland workers are still set for protected industrial action. They only need to give five days’ notice for stoppages if talks fail. At Jansen, another cost reset or a softer potash market could hit expected returns again.

Investors are looking at two key issues now: if the draft labour deal will keep Port Hedland running, and if the Jansen reset is final. BHP could react to the first question on Wednesday. The second issue will play out over a longer period.

Mateusz Brzeziński

Mateusz Brzeziński is a financial and technology journalist at Bez-kabli.pl, covering stocks, artificial intelligence, semiconductors and global market developments. He graduated from the Prague University of Economics and Business in the Czech Republic and previously worked in financial analysis before moving into business journalism. His reporting focuses on the companies, technologies and market trends shaping the global economy.

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