Bunzl (LON:BNZL) trades above analyst average as H2 margin outlook seen weaker

Bunzl (LON:BNZL) trades above analyst average as H2 margin outlook seen weaker

June 25, 2026

London, June 25, 2026, 13:07 (BST)

  • Bunzl was last seen at 2,678 pence, up 8.7% from where it closed on Monday but still sitting 0.3% under the 52-week high.
  • Bunzl expects first-half underlying revenue up roughly 3%. Volume drove around two-thirds of the increase.
  • A full-year margin of 7.5% would mean the back half lands around 7.8%. That compares with a calculated 8.2% ex-credit rate for H2 2025.
  • The average 12-month target for the stock on Investing.com is 2,538.5p, about 5.2% under where shares trade.

Bunzl plc (LON:BNZL) edged up 0.1% to 2,678p at 1300 BST on Thursday, hitting a session high of 2,679.5p earlier. Shares now trade 8.7% above Monday’s 2,464p close, nearly touching the 52-week high, just eight pence shy.

The stock climbed 2.84% Wednesday to hit a new 52-week high. Just 747,831 shares traded, well under the 50-day average of 1.4 million. That follows Tuesday’s 5.6% jump on 1.6 million shares.

Bunzl lifts 2026 sales target, keeps margin view steady Bunzl on Tuesday raised its 2026 revenue target. The company now sees first-half group revenue up about 4% in constant currencies with underlying growth of around 3%. Bunzl stuck with its full-year operating margin call, keeping it just below the 7.6% reported in 2025.

Bunzl’s CFO Richard Howes said volume drove about two-thirds of first-half growth, with price making up the rest. In Q2, growth split about equally between the two. North America made up 53% of Bunzl’s 2025 revenue and is seen as the main source for the current volume boost.

Most of the volume growth came from existing customers, Howes said. The £100 million in new business landed late in the third quarter of 2025 was not the main factor. CEO Frank van Zanten said the North America Distribution unit had “largely restored” its high service levels. Investing

Bunzl’s first-half margin was 7.0% in 2025. Howes said the rate this year should end up about 20 basis points higher. If “slightly down” works out to just 10 basis points for the full year, 7.5% margin and 2%-4% full-year revenue growth suggest the second-half margin could land near 7.8%. That’s against about 8.2% for H2 2025, after stripping out the full-year share-award credit. These numbers are a scenario based on what the company has disclosed, not Bunzl guidance. Bunzl

Bunzl’s first-half margins got a temporary boost from Q2 inflation and synergies from Nisbets annualisation. CEO Howes said, “there will be lower margins in the second half” and noted that some product prices have started to come down. Bunzl

Fuel and third-party logistics make up 15%-20% of SG&A costs, Howes said. Bunzl passes some of that to customers with surcharges, but can’t recover everything. If selling prices drop, Bunzl could lose first-half margin gains before transport costs come down.

Peel Hunt’s Andrew Nussey said there’s “room to see a slight uplift” in consensus revenue forecasts. Margin outlook stays the same. Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, described Bunzl as “well-run if not currently well-regarded” and expects the hold consensus to stick. MarketWatch

Bunzl is trading 5.2% above the average target price from Investing.com, so there’s less help from consensus valuations now. Shares have moved higher, but analysts haven’t raised margin forecasts.

Elliott Management has taken close to 5% of Bunzl, the Financial Times wrote last week, and is pushing for buybacks up to 10% of Bunzl’s market cap plus a review of its North America unit. That would be a shift for Bunzl, which hasn’t signaled such capital returns in its usual guidance.

Bunzl’s April buy of Scientifix should bring in about £9 million in yearly sales, which is less than 0.1% of the group’s 2025 revenue. The company is set to report half-year numbers on September 1.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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