LONDON, June 26, 2026, 13:01 BST
- easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) was quoted around 572.5p, leaving shares about 12% under Castlelake’s 650p offer.
- The board turned down the fourth bid but gave Castlelake some limited access to commercial data.
- The deal-spread math shows the implied odds of a 650p deal are about 70% when using 394.2p for the no-bid fallback.
easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) traded far under Castlelake’s recent takeover offer on Friday, leaving about £590 million between what Castlelake valued the airline at and what investors priced the shares at in the market.
Shares traded at 572.5p at 13:01 BST, off 0.3% for the day but up 13.7% over the last five days, based on Cboe Europe numbers from MarketScreener. That’s 77.5p below Castlelake’s 650p cash offer per share, about 12% under the bid price.
Gap stands out. Castlelake’s 650p bid puts easyJet’s value at roughly £4.93 billion. Backing out the share count from that, Friday’s close leaves the equity at about £4.34 billion. That’s a difference of £588 million.
The stock price is pricing in about a 70% chance of a 650p cash offer based on a simple two-price model, using Castlelake’s referenced undisturbed close at 394.2p on May 28 as the fallback. That’s just a rough estimate—a no-deal price could end up above or below that mark. But this is why investors are handling the stock as a risk trade and not as a standard takeover spread. Castlelake said its 625p third proposal was a 59% premium to the undisturbed 394.2p; easyJet later disclosed it turned down a fourth, higher proposal at 650p.
easyJet’s board rejected the fourth offer, saying it still “substantially” undervalues the airline and there are “significant” questions over whether it can be delivered. The board will give Castlelake limited commercial details, saying that could prompt a better offer. The UK Takeover Panel pushed back Castlelake’s put-up-or-shut-up deadline to 5:00 p.m. on July 5. Investegate
The structure of the bid is still under discussion. easyJet said Castlelake and its partners would hold 49% of the proposed vehicle, with the rest owned by EU nationals such as Peter Bellew and Mark Breen. The board is seeking more details on ownership, deliverability and timing.
easyJet’s price isn’t just about earnings. The carrier finished March with £434 million in net cash, £4.7 billion in liquidity, and £5.0 billion of owned-asset book value. First-half headline loss before tax was £552 million, more than last year’s £394 million. Load factor climbed two points to 90%.
easyJet CEO Kenton Jarvis told investors in May the airline is “well placed to manage” this period, pointing to its investment-grade balance sheet. He also said there had been no fuel-supply issues and everything was operating as normal.
easyJet’s value is splitting analyst opinion. “Few people can resist a bargain,” Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, told Reuters this month. Jaime Rowbotham at Deutsche Bank said easyJet had “looked cheap” for a while. Barclays analyst Andrew Lobbenberg put the value of its fleet, slots and holiday arm at more than £11 a share. Reuters
Morningstar’s Loredana Muharremi lowered her fair value call on easyJet to £5.74 from £6.70 last week. She pointed to lower “earnings visibility” because of late bookings and the chance of some fare pressure. Morningstar also said the number doesn’t account for any takeover premium. Morningstar
Castlelake has a deadline of July 5 to decide on a formal offer or to drop its interest, as required by UK takeover regulations. easyJet told shareholders not to do anything for now.
