SYDNEY, June 30, 2026, 07:03 AEST
- Mineral Resources Limited ASX:MIN ended Monday at A$62.15, falling 1.57%. The stock hasn’t opened yet in Sydney on Tuesday.
- The drop since its Lucky Bay update wipes about A$737 million from equity value, almost 18 times the planned A$40 million write-down.
- China battery-grade lithium carbonate dropped 15.22% this month, with MIN down 16.39% in four weeks.
The ASX cash market hadn’t opened yet at the time of writing. June 30 doesn’t appear as a 2026 cash-market holiday, and usual trading hours for the Australian Securities Exchange cash market are 9:59 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. Sydney time.
Mineral Resources Limited ASX:MIN dropped 1.57% to finish at A$62.15 on Monday. The move trailed the S&P/ASX 200, which gained 0.68%. Shares changed hands between A$61.25 and A$64.04. About 1.07 million shares traded.
The key point is the mismatch between the accounting charge and the move in the stock. MinRes said last week it would halt the Lucky Bay garnet project and take a non-cash impairment of around A$40 million. Since then, shares have dropped from A$65.86 to A$62.15, event-price data shows. With 198.54 million shares out, that wipes about A$737 million off the market cap.
| Measure | Latest data | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| MIN closed at A$62.15 on June 29 | A$62.15 | The stock dropped 1.57% for the session |
| Price at Lucky Bay news | A$65.86 | Sits 5.63% under that recent update |
| Implied equity sold off | About A$737 mln | This is nearly 18 times the Lucky Bay planned writedown |
| Lucky Bay writedown | About A$40 mln | Works out to about 0.3% of the A$12.28 bln market cap |
| Price when chair updated on June 22 | A$69.15 | Shares are now 10.12% below that level |
The ratio is important since Lucky Bay isn’t big enough by itself to drive the trade. The market is pricing in more risk for MinRes, with focus on lithium prices, rising costs, and capital management as the shares have had a strong run.
MinRes said the financial results at Lucky Bay have been “materially impacted” by Middle East conflict, which is a main sales market for the project, and also by higher diesel and shipping costs. Around 110 workers are affected. The company is weighing options, including possibly selling the project.
Lithium’s selloff looks clearer on the tape. On June 29, China’s battery-grade lithium carbonate was at 151,750 yuan a tonne, down 15.22% for the month. MinRes dropped 16.39% in four weeks.
Carl Capolingua, lead writer at Market Index, pointed to broker notes from Macquarie, Morgan Stanley, Shaw and Partners, UBS, and Wood Mackenzie, saying there’s no clear answer for why lithium futures fell. “Nobody can tell you precisely why” prices dropped, Capolingua wrote, but added the market “may be tighter than the tumbling price would have you believe.” Market Index
UBS is mildly bullish on lithium and picked MinRes as its top Australian lithium pick, the Market Index report said. Morgan Stanley is neutral, while Wood Mackenzie is more cautious. For MinRes, that matters—the stock’s now trading more as a lithium play with upside than as a garnet story.
MinRes slipped on Monday as other major miners in the sector advanced. The stock still leads the group below on a 12-month basis.
| Stock/index | June 29 move | 12-month move |
|---|---|---|
| Mineral Resources Limited ASX:MIN | fell 1.57% | up 188.27% |
| BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP | added 1.41% | gained 62.78% |
| Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG | rose 2.36% | up 27.75% |
| IGO Ltd ASX:IGO | edged up 0.14% | up 75.54% |
| S&P/ASX 200 | gained 0.68% | up 3.03% |
IG analyst Tony Sycamore told AAP last week that the latest selling in the local market was triggered by profit warnings and another drop in commodity prices as the U.S. dollar climbed. The report also noted MinRes dropped 2.6% that day after it said it would close Lucky Bay and warned of 110 job cuts.
The stock is watching two levels for Tuesday. Monday’s low came in at A$61.25, while A$65.86 is linked to the Lucky Bay news. A$1 on MIN moves about A$199 million in market value by the latest share count.
