NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) shares slip as Evelyn deal puts attention on capital ratios

NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) shares slip as Evelyn deal puts attention on capital ratios

July 3, 2026

LONDON, July 3, 2026, 14:05 (BST)

  • NatWest slipped 0.38% to 676.00p by 14:01 BST, trading 5.81 million shares. That’s below the average volume of 22.88 million.
  • NatWest’s £2.7 billion acquisition of Evelyn Partners brings the bank’s combined AUMA to £127 billion, with the transaction taking about 130 basis points off its CET1 ratio.
  • NatWest is set for its first full guidance test on July 31, when it will post H1 2026 results at 7 a.m. BST.

NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) slipped 0.38% to 676.00p in London Friday, trading close to other UK banks. The FTSE 100 also moved lower. London markets kept regular hours, with LSE open from 0800 to 1630 BST.

NatWest has finished its buy of Evelyn Partners, putting a new focus on the stock. Shares now trade less like a simple rates play. Investors are watching to see if fee growth, cutting costs and using capital will pay off soon enough. The shift is bigger than the earlier soft move—now it’s about the whole balance sheet.

Google Finance and broker numbers showed NatWest was still priced lower on P/E than Barclays, Lloyds or HSBC, with the top yield among them.

CompanyGoogle Finance tickerShare price around 1400 BST1-day moveP/EDividend yieldMarket cap
NatWest GroupLON:NWG676.00pdown 0.38%9.684.81%£53.86 bln
BarclaysLON:BARC520.30poff 0.34%12.031.65%£70.24 bln
Lloyds Banking GroupLON:LLOY114.05pfell 0.52%14.853.20%£66.44 bln
HSBC HoldingsLON:HSBA1,445.24punchanged15.923.85%£248.14 bln

NatWest completed its £2.7 billion enterprise-value buy of Evelyn on June 30. Evelyn reported £69 billion in assets under management and administration at the end of 2025, ahead of NatWest’s £59 billion. The merged wealth business now has £127 billion in AUMA and £188 billion in customer assets and liabilities. CEO Paul Thwaite said the platform will “offer a broader range of products, services and advice to over 20 million customers.” SEC

Valuation was in question from the start when the deal came out. RBC Capital Markets analyst Benjamin Toms called it “transformational” for NatWest’s wealth platform, but pointed out the bank’s usual strength with high-net-worth clients has been through Coutts. The Wall Street Journal

Markets are reading this as tighter. The deal price is roughly 5% of NatWest’s market cap, and around 3.9% of Evelyn’s projected AUMA for end-2025. The capital impact is immediate. NatWest is looking for about £100 million in annual run-rate cost synergies, with about £150 million in costs to get there.

Evelyn deal itemFigureInvestor read-through
Purchase price£2.7 bln enterprise valueRoughly 5% of NatWest’s market value now
Evelyn AUMA£69 blnDeal price is about 3.9% of client assets
Combined AUMA£127 blnMore than double what NatWest expected for AUMA by end-2025
Fee-income effectc.20% uplift before revenue synergiesIf it plays out, less dependence on net interest
Cost synergiesc.£100 mln annual run-rateJust scaling up is not enough – has to deliver
Costs to achievec.£150 mlnHeavy hit up front
CET1 effectc.130 bps reductionBuybacks and buffer still an open question

NatWest’s Q1 results give management a bit of leeway. The bank posted operating profit before tax of £2.03 billion, return on tangible equity at 18.2%, and CET1 at 14.3% at March 31. Income guidance, stripping out notable items and before the Evelyn piece, is now at the top end of the £17.2 billion to £17.6 billion range.

NatWest metricQ1 2026Q4 2025Q1 2025
Net interest income£3.394 bln£3.441 bln£3.026 bln
Total income£4.358 bln£4.324 bln£3.980 bln
Operating profit before tax£2.033 bln£1.940 bln£1.812 bln
Attributable profit£1.432 bln£1.393 bln£1.252 bln
Net interest margin2.47%2.45%2.27%
RoTE18.2%18.3%18.5%

NatWest’s Q1 slides put NIM at 2.47%, up 20 bps year-on-year. The bank also sees structural hedge income growing by about £1.5 billion in 2026 and £1 billion in 2027. That’s earnings support Evelyn has to build on, not swap out. The rates engine is still running.

The UK economy gave investors little support Friday as the June services PMI dropped to 48.8, its lowest since January 2023. The composite PMI slipped to 49.3. Tim Moore, economics director at S&P Global Market Intelligence, said June figures showed “a clear loss of momentum” after what had been a stronger start to the year. The Guardian

Politics also feeds into the bank model. The bank-tax debate is back after the Trades Union Congress said putting the bank surcharge back to earlier levels might bring in £9 billion in four years. UK Finance, quoted in the same report, put the UK bank sector’s total effective tax rate at roughly 46.4%, which is higher than Frankfurt or New York.

NatWest is facing a new legal threat after the Financial Times said its Royal Bank of Scotland arm was hit with a lawsuit from liquidators linked to the Thurrock council scandal. The claim totals over £250 million, FT reported. NatWest didn’t comment, but plans to fight the case, according to the paper.

NatWest plans to start consolidating Evelyn Partners on June 30. It will update on the effect to full-year 2026 guidance during interim results on July 31. Management will present at 9 a.m. BST, the company said.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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