IAG stock hovers close to analyst marks after easyJet offer and oil slide shake up airlines

LONDON, July 6, 2026, 11:11 BST

• IAG’s London CDIs added 1.7% to 485.5p/485.7p during LSE trading, sitting around 1.5% shy of their 52-week high.
• The quote is roughly 2.3% below the median 12-month analyst target at 496.77p.
• easyJet’s bid from Castlelake puts a price tag on deals for airline stocks. IAG faces a key check on how much rising fuel costs have hit ahead of its July 31 results.

International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LON:IAG), which owns British Airways, Iberia, Aer Lingus and Vueling, edged up 1.7% in London on Monday. Shares traded in a sell-buy spread of 485.5p/485.7p, with most recent trades at 485.6p. The London Stock Exchange was open; hours run 8:00 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. BST on weekdays.

IAG’s investor page notes the shares are listed on Spain’s exchanges and also on London’s main market, with investors there getting CDIs. The dual listing is in focus today as the London shares approach both the 52-week high and the average sell-side target.

The analyst spread is tight. Investors Chronicle data show 13 analysts set a median 12-month price target of 496.77p for IAG. Estimates go as high as 616.68p and as low as 385.43p. With shares at 485.6p, the median offers about 2.3% upside. The full range points to as much as 27% up or 21% down.

For holders, the gap is key since the stock has already baked in much of the recovery. Any more upside needs signs that fares and costs will handle the fuel shock, not just another airline bounce.

easyJet plc (LON:EZJ) jumped 11.4% on Monday after saying it had agreed in principle to a Castlelake takeover worth £5.5 billion at £6.90 a share. Shares stayed under the bid price as some approval risk hung over the deal. Castlelake has until Aug. 3 to make a firm offer or drop the bid under UK rules.

Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG, said easyJet’s offer is still “a deep discount” to its late 2010s share price. That quote is about easyJet, but it also matters for IAG: private money is still willing to pay for airline assets, while listed carriers trade with a discount for fuel and regulation. Reuters

IAG got help from oil. Brent crude lost over 1% to $71.10 a barrel Monday as OPEC+ agreed to boost output from August and Gulf exports kept coming back. Airlines aren’t direct Brent buyers, but cheaper crude lifts mood on jet fuel, which is their biggest variable cost.

IAG still faces fuel issues. The company flagged in May that 2026 profit, free cash flow and capacity would come in below previous guidance, and projected jet fuel costs to reach about 9 billion euros this year. CEO Luis Gallego said fuel supply wasn’t a problem in IAG’s main markets. J.P. Morgan’s Harry Gowers noted the group’s “strong free cash flow generation.” Reuters

Jet fuel refining margins are still a tough risk for airlines. Daniel Chereau, IATA’s head of fuel, said in June the high jet-fuel crack spreads had “not been helpful” for carriers. IATA Director General Willie Walsh said this year’s airline profit per passenger is set to drop to about $4.50, which is around half of last year’s figure. Reuters

IAG’s buyback now gives the market another reference. The airline said on June 29 it bought 7.67 million shares during June 22-26 as part of its 500 million euro buyback, paying up to £4.89 in London and 5.66 euros in Madrid. London shares are trading just under that recent buyback level.

IAG has Q2 2026 results set for July 31, according to its financial calendar. That’s the next scheduled event for the stock after Monday, with shares now near the median target and trading just under the new London buyback cap.