LONDON, July 7, 2026, 13:07 BST
- NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) slipped in London, changing hands near 680p, even as the FTSE 100 edged up.
- Bank of England leverage-rule easing may give some relief to UK banks, but it won’t undo the capital impact from NatWest’s Evelyn Partners acquisition.
- The consensus now expects the bulk of the buyback to come in 2027 and 2028, with 2026 looking light.
NatWest Group Plc (LON:NWG) slipped 0.9% to trade at a 680.0p/680.4p sell-buy level in London early Wednesday, after opening at 687.6p. The bank’s market cap stood near £54.2 billion. The FTSE 100 rose 0.2% to 10,673.85 at 1057 GMT, supported by gains in energy names.
For NatWest, capital might be the bigger issue than Tuesday’s price move. The Bank of England outlined plans to relax leverage-ratio rules for the UK’s biggest banks, with a projected 20 basis-point drop in total leverage demands. Reuters reported the changes would apply to large domestic banks like Lloyds Banking Group Plc LON:LLOY, NatWest, and Santander UK.
NatWest gets some help on timing here, but it isn’t a direct offset. The bank finished its £2.7 billion deal to buy Evelyn Partners on June 30, and says the move should cut its CET1 ratio by around 130 basis points. That takes into account a £2.7 billion hit for goodwill and intangibles. NatWest said it will give more detail on how this affects 2026 guidance with interim results on July 31.
Consensus numbers point to the gap. NatWest’s own post-Q1 consensus, using input from 15 analysts for the full year, shows projected buybacks at just £67 million in 2026, climbing to £1.8 billion for 2027 and £2.1 billion in 2028. Shares around 680p are about 9.3 times the 2026 EPS forecast, and fall to 7.5 times for 2028 if those earnings come through.
| Metric | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E |
|---|---|---|---|
| EPS | 73.2p | 82.1p | 90.2p |
| Implied P/E at 680p | 9.3x | 8.3x | 7.5x |
| Dividend per share | 36.5p | 41.2p | 45.5p |
| Buybacks | £67 mln | £1.8 bln | £2.1 bln |
| CET1 ratio | 13.0% | 13.1% | 13.2% |
The table spells out why this is now a 2027 capital-return call. 2026 profits are still there, but buyback lift per share will drop this year, since NatWest has locked up capital in Evelyn.
The bank’s previous guidance, given before Evelyn was included in 2026, is roughly in line with post-Q1 consensus on both income and costs. Management projected income, excluding notable items, at the upper end of a £17.2 billion-£17.6 billion range, and costs of about £8.2 billion. Loan impairments were seen coming in under 25 basis points and return on tangible equity above 17%.
| Measure | NatWest 2026 guidance | Post-Q1 consensus read |
|---|---|---|
| Income ex-notables | Top of £17.2 billion-£17.6 billion | £17.712 billion equivalent |
| Other operating expenses | About £8.2 billion | £8.236 billion equivalent |
| Loan impairment rate | Under 25 bps | 24 bps |
| RoTE | More than 17% | 18.9% |
| CET1 ratio | Roughly 13% | 13.0% |
NatWest’s Q1 figures let it hold off for now, but it can’t afford to slip up. The bank posted £1.43 billion in attributable profit. Cost-income ratio came in at 46.5%. Return on tangible equity was 18.2%. CET1 ratio stood at 14.3% at the end of March.
NatWest posted 65 basis points of capital before distributions for the first quarter, and said it sees around 200 basis points for 2026, before finishing the Evelyn deal. The bank said Basel 3.1 should add about £10 billion to risk-weighted assets on Jan. 1, 2027.
Chief Executive Paul Thwaite called the Evelyn deal “an important step” and said the merged wealth division will now offer “a broader range of products, services and advice” across its base of over 20 million customers. NatWest has £127 billion in combined assets under management and administration, using end-2025 numbers, but the deal means the bank will delay capital return. Investegate
The Bank of England’s move isn’t without risk. A few Financial Policy Committee members flagged that the planned leverage tweaks “might lead to an unwanted increase in market-based leverage.” Jeanie Watson at AFME said the existing rules had “become increasingly binding.” Reuters
Next up is NatWest’s July 31 interim report, which will be the first to include a full guidance reset since Evelyn. Investors will be watching for an update on whether 2027 buybacks remain on track. The bank reports H1 results at 7 a.m. BST, followed by management’s presentation two hours later.
