LONDON, July 2, 2026, 19:02 (BST)
- ABF edged higher, closing up 0.16% at 1,926.5p. Shares didn’t follow the FTSE 100, which bounced 1.7% after the profit warning selloff on Wednesday.
- Sugar is now guiding for a potential FY2026 loss at the high end of £60 million, or roughly 4% of the group adjusted operating profit expected by consensus before the update.
- Primark posted a 3% sales gain for Q3, but the figure got a 5-point lift from new stores. Like-for-like sales were down 2.2%.
- CEO George Weston said the outlook for ABF hasn’t changed except for Sugar. The Primark demerger is still set for before the end of 2027.
Associated British Foods plc (LON:ABF) shares saw only a slight rebound Thursday after the Primark parent revealed sugar losses may persist through 2027. The disclosure gave investors a more direct picture of the risk as the company heads for its planned split.
ABF finished Thursday at 1,926.5p, gaining 0.16%. That follows a 3.15% loss on Wednesday. In those two sessions, the FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) turned around from a slight dip to a 1.7% jump, so ABF is still about 3% under Tuesday’s close while the index moved higher.
| Date | ABF close | ABF daily move | FTSE 100 daily move |
|---|---|---|---|
| June 30 | 1,986.0p | down 0.15% | up 0.12% |
| July 1 | 1,923.5p | fell 3.15% | off 0.18% |
| July 2 | 1,926.5p | added 0.16% | rose 1.73% |
ABF’s sugar business is now in focus as the group set a clear number on the losses. The company sees Sugar making an adjusted operating loss of £25 million to £60 million in FY2026. That could get worse in FY2027, with ABF warning losses may go above the high end. Analysts had been looking for £1.55 billion in group adjusted operating profit for FY2026 before this update, LSEG data showed, as reported by Reuters.
| ABF business | Q3 revenue | Constant-currency change |
|---|---|---|
| Retail | £2.920 bln | up 3% |
| Grocery | £1.043 bln | 1% higher |
| Ingredients | £543 mln | up 3% |
| Sugar | £451 mln | down 4% |
| Agriculture | £357 mln | fell 14% |
| Group | £5.304 bln | No change |
Primark sales are up 3% in Q3, ABF said, but that top-line number looks stronger than the underlying trend. The 3% lift includes a 5 percentage point gain from new stores, meaning like-for-like sales actually slipped 2.2%.
| Primark market | Share of Primark sales | Q3 like-for-like sales | Q3 total sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| UK and Ireland | 46% | down 0.2% | up 1% |
| Europe ex-UK/Ireland | 47% | down 3.6% | down 1% |
| U.S. | 6% | — | up 16% |
| Primark total | — | down 2.2% | up 3% |
The move means investors are focused more on continental Europe now. Europe, minus the UK and Ireland, is nearly half of Primark sales, but like-for-like revenue slipped 3.6% in Q3. The U.S. arm rose 16%, driven by three new stores, but is still just 6% of the total.
Weston said in the ABF update: “Aside from Sugar, our full year outlook for the Group is unchanged.” The company is sticking with guidance for Primark’s adjusted operating margin at roughly 10% for the year. ABF also said plans to split Retail and Food are still set for before the end of 2027. ABF Corporate
Food added another, smaller drag. Grocery sales edged up 1% in Q3, lifted by Twinings and Ovaltine, but ABF flagged weaker U.S. oils sales as its main Hispanic customer pulled back on spending. Weston told analysts U.S. cooking oils volumes are down by the mid-single digits this year.
Weston told analysts the company’s main heavy-use buyer is the Hispanic population, who are feeling financial pressure, Reuters reported. Some shoppers are stretching out their cooking oil, he said. “We don’t think that that’s going to change into 2027.” Reuters
Morningstar equity analyst Verushka Shetty said Primark’s 3% sales growth in constant currency was mainly coming from new store openings, while like-for-like sales were still soft. Shetty left Morningstar’s fair value estimate unchanged at 2,000p. “We view shares as fairly valued at current levels,” she wrote. Morningstar
Panmure Liberum analysts told Reuters that Primark’s like-for-like sales recovery is still the main catalyst for the stock, but they said the turnaround may take more time than the market thinks.
ABF is set to report its next trading update on Sept. 10. Full-year results will come out Nov. 3.
