New York, February 16, 2026, 19:18 (EST) — Market closed.
Adobe Inc shares will return to trading on Tuesday after U.S. markets shut for Presidents Day, with the stock last up 0.5% at $263.97 in Friday’s session. That left the Photoshop maker just above its 52-week low of $259.25. (New York Stock Exchange)
The pause comes as investors keep reworking the AI trade, not just in software. Microsoft shares are down about 17% so far this year as traders question whether heavy AI spending will deliver returns fast enough to justify valuations. (Reuters)
In software, the worry is more blunt: fast-advancing AI tools could undercut subscription pricing power. Barclays equity strategist Emmanual Cau said investors were in “sell first think later” mode, and noted Adobe was down 25% in 2026; Salesforce has fallen about 30% and CrowdStrike about 12%, the Reuters report said. “There’s this idea that AI is somehow going to replace built-out models in the near term,” said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. (Reuters)
Some on Wall Street have also argued the stock’s cheaper look is not, by itself, a catalyst. Baird analyst Rob Oliver wrote that “cheap valuations alone don’t promise a recovery,” as investors debate whether Adobe’s AI push is translating into durable dollars. (MarketWatch)
Adobe has tried to steady that narrative with guidance and a steady drumbeat on AI adoption. In December, CFO Dan Durn told Reuters the company was seeing “significant strength in Creative Cloud Pro, Photoshop, Lightroom,” and said monthly active users for Adobe’s freemium offerings rose 35% to over 70 million. (Reuters)
The company is also leaning on deals. Adobe agreed to buy marketing platform Semrush for $1.9 billion in cash, and said the combination would help marketers understand how brands are seen through searches on websites and generative AI bots such as ChatGPT and Gemini; Adobe expects the deal to close in the first half of 2026, subject to approvals and other conditions. “The price is steep… The payoff could be high,” said Emarketer analyst Grace Harmon. (Reuters)
For Tuesday’s session, traders will watch whether selling tied to AI disruption fears keeps spreading, or whether buyers step back in after the long weekend. Adobe has moved with the software group lately, sometimes more like a sentiment ticker than a company story.
There’s an obvious downside scenario. If customers push harder toward usage-based pricing — paying by consumption rather than by “seats,” or per-user licenses — it could pressure Adobe’s core subscription model even if demand stays firm. Any delay or complication around the Semrush close would be another drag.
U.S. stock markets reopen Tuesday after Monday’s holiday shutdown, which can bring abrupt repositioning and thin liquidity early. The first moves often run hot, then fade. (AP News)
Beyond the reopen, the next hard catalyst is Adobe’s next quarterly report, expected on March 12 after the close, when investors will look for updates on annual recurring revenue (ARR) — a key measure of subscription sales — and whether AI features are starting to add revenue, not just activity. (Investing)
