New York, March 3, 2026, 07:33 ET — Premarket
Shares of American Airlines Group Inc (AAL.O) dropped 3.1% in premarket action Tuesday, trading at $12.13. On Monday, the stock closed at $12.52, down 4.2%, with roughly 87.3 million shares changing hands. 1
Jet fuel, a major expense for airlines, usually tracks the swings in crude oil prices. When oil jumps quickly, carriers feel the pinch in profits well before they manage to lift ticket prices.
Airlines have become a straightforward macro play this week—stocks falling as oil climbs. Investors are left weighing the duration of the shock, watching for signs that rerouted flights and cancellations might eventually start to hit demand.
Brent crude jumped $6.05, or 7.8%, to $83.79 a barrel at 1143 GMT, with U.S. WTI climbing $5.31, or 7.5%, at $76.54, according to Reuters. ING flagged “a greater risk” if Iran hits more energy infrastructure. Bernstein, meanwhile, lifted its 2026 Brent forecast to $80 and warned prices could rocket to $120-$150 should a severe, drawn-out conflict break out. 2
Airline shares across Asia and Europe slid further, squeezed by narrower flight corridors and costlier fuel, according to Reuters. Qantas boss Vanessa Hudson described the airline’s fuel hedges as “pretty good,” but admitted the surge in prices was hard to ignore. Paul Charles, a travel consultant, labeled this “the biggest shutdown” since COVID. Investors aren’t treating all airlines the same anymore, J.P. Morgan’s Karen Li noted—they’re watching who’s best at hedging and rerouting, rather than betting on the sector as a whole. 3
Ticket prices on certain Asia-Europe flights shot up as travelers looked for workarounds, Reuters reported, with Dubai and other Gulf hubs closed for a fourth straight day. “Right now the whole of the Middle East is out of bounds,” said Subhas Menon, who heads the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines. He cautioned that the stretched detours mean airlines burn more fuel and rack up extra costs. 4
Travel stocks lost $22.6 billion in value Monday, hit by oil surging up to 13% and pressure on U.S. airlines, with American, Delta Air Lines (DAL.N), and United Airlines (UAL.O) each falling between 2% and 4%, according to Reuters calculations. Jefferies analysts noted that flights involving the Middle East make up less than 1% of first-quarter schedules for these three carriers, but warned that a 5% fuel price increase could wipe out roughly 35% of American’s profit for 2026. “If the reduction in tanker traffic continues for a week or so it will be historic,” said Jim Burkhard, S&P’s global head of crude oil research. 5
American added travel alerts for several Middle Eastern airports, plus Cairo and Tel Aviv, listing fee waivers and refunds on certain tickets, the airline’s website shows. The carrier also put out a separate severe-weather alert for Dallas-Fort Worth—its largest hub—targeting travel later this week. 6
This setup could just as easily flip. Should crude prices slip or airspace restrictions lift, that extra fuel charge could disappear in a hurry. But if the situation stretches out, carriers get squeezed—higher fuel bills and weaker demand, all at once.
Before New York gets going, traders are scanning oil and shipping for new cues, eyeing any tweaks to flight restrictions near key transit hubs. The next major scheduled event lands Wednesday: the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum report, out after 10:30 a.m. Eastern. 7
