London, June 19, 2026, 10:06 BST
- Anglo American was down 1.4% at 3,938 pence in Friday morning trading, with shares changing hands at 10:01 BST.
- Berenberg’s Richard Hatch downgraded the miner to “hold” from “buy”. That takes the rating to neutral. Streetinsider
- Anglo American will report second-quarter production numbers on July 23 and first-half results on July 30.
Anglo American fell again on Friday, sliding 1.4% after a new broker downgrade focused investors on short-term earnings. The FTSE 100 held steady. Miners Rio Tinto and Antofagasta also dropped, down about 0.5% and 1.2%, but those losses were lighter than Anglo’s.
Investors had been focusing more on what Anglo could look like in the future, not on its present assets. Shares dropped 3.3% on Thursday to close at 3,995 pence. Friday’s pullback points to some profit-taking before the company posts its July production and earnings.
Berenberg is staying cautious with its numbers. The bank sees first-half revenue at $9.8 billion, while analysts are at $9.9 billion. It’s guiding to underlying EBITDA of $3.7 billion, under the $3.9 billion average. That’s earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a way to look at profit from running the business. Berenberg puts adjusted continuing earnings at $0.63 a share, which is shy of the $0.78 consensus. Net debt, which is borrowings minus cash, is put at $9.3 billion.
Berenberg stuck with its 4,200 pence price target, just about 7% above Friday’s closing price. The bank said it still backs the planned Anglo-Teck deal, but tweaked its forecasts for diamond prices, costs, and metallurgical coal. The downgrade comes down to timing, not a shift on Anglo’s copper push.
Anglo American’s first-quarter output was uneven. Copper was up 1%, but premium iron ore slipped 2%. Units Anglo is exiting posted a 17% jump in diamonds, but steelmaking coal dropped 31%. CEO Duncan Wanblad said the Teck merger is “on track for an expected September 2026 to March 2027 close” and pointed to Chinese antitrust signoff as the last major hurdle. Anglo American
The deal is set to form a top-five global copper producer, with over 70% of its output tied to copper. That’s what makes the deal attractive for the long run. But for now, the market keeps valuing Anglo on its current cash flow, debt, and history with disposals until the deal is finished.
De Beers is the key swing factor for now. CEO Al Cook told reporters this week a sale could come in “weeks rather than months”. Anglo wants out of its 85% stake; Botswana has the other 15%. A firm sale would take a major uncertainty off the table, but pricing and deal terms are still just as important as timing. Reuters
But risks are plain. Poor numbers in the first half, asset sales that are late or fetch less, or Chinese approval taking longer would mean Anglo holds on to the old mix and its cost overhang. On the flip side, a smooth production update, solid deal on De Beers, and visible merger progress could push the stock back up close to Berenberg’s target.
