London, June 18, 2026, 13:12 BST
- Anglo American traded at 3,994 pence, down 3.34%, after touching an intraday low of 3,983 pence.
- Berenberg cut the miner to “hold” from “buy” while keeping its 4,200-pence price target. Shareprices
- Anglo is due to publish second-quarter production on July 23 and first-half results on July 30.
Anglo American shares fell more than 3% in afternoon trading on Thursday after Berenberg downgraded the stock, adding a company-specific concern to a broad retreat in mining shares. Rio Tinto and Glencore were each down more than 2%, while the FTSE 100 lost over 1%.
The downgrade matters because Anglo’s recent re-rating has leaned heavily on future gains from its Teck Resources merger and the disposal of non-core assets. Berenberg said it was taking a breather after the share-price run, warning that first-half figures could fall short of market expectations. Its target now offers only about 5% upside from Thursday’s quoted price; a price target is an analyst estimate, not an assured return.
Berenberg forecasts first-half revenue of $9.8 billion, against the average analyst estimate of $9.9 billion. It expects underlying EBITDA — earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation, a measure of operating profit — of $3.7 billion, versus the $3.9 billion consensus. Its estimates for adjusted earnings, the dividend and net debt are also weaker than the market averages.
The sector tape offered little cover. Copper dropped about 2% to $6.36 a pound on Thursday, although it remained more than 32% above its level a year earlier. That combination helps explain the market’s mood: investors still see a strong long-term copper case, but they are less willing to overlook near-term cost and production risks.
De Beers remains the most visible unfinished part of Anglo’s overhaul. Chief Executive Al Cook said this week that he hoped a sale would happen in “weeks rather than months”, adding: “We’ve never been closer than we are to a sale.” Anglo owns 85% of the diamond group, with Botswana holding the balance. Reuters
Getting that transaction over the line would remove a volatile business and could release capital. Anglo reported a $3.7 billion loss for 2025 after taking a $2.3 billion pre-tax writedown on De Beers, whose earnings have been hit by weak Chinese demand and competition from laboratory-grown stones.
Anglo’s wider reshaping is well advanced. Canada has approved its merger with Teck, while the company agreed last month to sell its Australian steelmaking-coal operations for up to $3.88 billion. The coal deal includes $2.3 billion upfront, with further payments linked to prices and other conditions.
The strategic logic is clear enough: a leaner group, dominated by copper and premium iron ore, with more scale once Teck is folded in. The harder issue is timing. Disposal proceeds, merger benefits and higher copper exposure sit mostly in the future; interest costs, non-core underperformance and execution demands are already visible.
But the downside case has several moving parts. A weaker first-half result could force another round of earnings cuts, an unattractive De Beers sale price would reduce expected debt relief, and a sharp copper reversal would compress the valuation before merger benefits arrive. Delays to regulatory clearance or integration would add another layer of risk.
The next hard evidence comes from production in July, followed a week later by the half-year accounts. Until then, Anglo’s shares are likely to trade less on the long-range blueprint and more on whether management can turn disposals, output plans and merger promises into cash.
