SYDNEY, March 3, 2026, 17:42 AEDT — Market closed.
- ANZ finished 0.18% higher at A$39.40, bouncing through a turbulent session.
- Traders adjusted their rate expectations after RBA Governor Michele Bullock called March a “live” meeting.
- GDP figures from Australia land Wednesday. Traders are on alert for any unexpected shift in growth.
ANZ Group Holdings Ltd edged up 0.07 Australian dollars to finish at A$39.40, a gain of 0.18%, having ranged from A$39.30 to A$39.765 through the day. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 1.34%, settling at 9,077.30. 1
The seven cents themselves aren’t really the story for investors. What’s crucial is the rates trajectory—and its direct hit to bank profits. Mortgage payments are pinching, and as bond yields shift, funding costs aren’t far behind.
Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock left the door open to a rate hike next month, saying a March increase could happen if inflation expectations start to drift. “I’m not making a prediction about March but it will be a live meeting,” she said. Markets quickly adjusted, now giving about a 30% chance of a quarter-point rise on March 17 and fully pricing in a move by May. Three-year bond yields jumped 13 basis points to 4.313%. As for growth, Commonwealth Bank and National Australia Bank analysts now put fourth-quarter GDP at roughly 1%, with Westpac a notch higher at 1.1%. 2
Australia’s December 2025 quarter national accounts land Wednesday at 11:30am AEDT, and whatever comes out could jolt rate bets yet again—possibly before trading wraps up. 3
The labour market isn’t easing up—ANZ-Indeed reported a 3.2% jump in job ads for February. “Renewed hiring vigour” has swept the country since the start of the year, according to Indeed senior economist Callam Pickering. 4
Bullock flagged the Middle East conflict as a new wildcard for inflation, cautioning that “things can change quickly” and stressing it’s still too soon to gauge any fallout. The RBA’s cash rate remains at 3.85% following a 25-basis-point hike in February. 5
Banks are caught in a tricky position. Higher rates boost lending margins; at the same time, the risk of households missing payments jumps, so lenders have to earmark more cash for possible losses.
ANZ heads into this period off the back of a robust February, having reported a 17% surge in first-quarter cash profit. CEO Nuno Matos credited a focus on productivity for keeping expenses down, a move that sent the stock to an all-time high. 6
The risk’s clear enough: should energy prices remain elevated and rate hikes accelerate, the extra margin won’t offset rising borrower stress. Suddenly, talk of bad debts could return to the market.
The RBA’s March policy meeting lands March 16–17, with the decision statement scheduled for 2:30pm AEDT on March 17. Wednesday’s GDP numbers will shape the backdrop. 7
