NEW YORK, February 11, 2026, 17:39 EST
- AppLovin forecast first-quarter revenue of $1.745 billion to $1.775 billion after fourth-quarter revenue jumped 66%
- Shares fell about 6% in regular trading after UBS cut its price target
- CapitalWatch retracted parts of its allegations; Jefferies reiterated a buy and $860 target
AppLovin forecast first-quarter revenue of $1.745 billion to $1.775 billion on Wednesday after fourth-quarter revenue jumped 66% to $1.658 billion. Net income rose to $1.10 billion, while adjusted EBITDA—a cash-flow proxy—climbed to $1.40 billion, the company said. Shares were down about 6% in regular trading as UBS cut its price target. (Business Wire)
The numbers hit a market already on edge. AppLovin’s stock has moved on headlines as much as fundamentals, with investors split on how repeatable its ad performance is and how much noise sits around the company.
That matters this week because the scrutiny is no longer theoretical. It has pulled in short sellers, big-bank analysts and, now, earnings that set a baseline for what’s real and what’s just heat.
CapitalWatch, a prominent critic, posted a correction and apology over the weekend and pulled back some accusations about a shareholder. “We are formally retracting specific characterizations and allegations contained therein regarding Mr. Tang Hao,” it wrote, after saying money-laundering claims tied to a January report did not meet its standards. CapitalWatch said the retraction did not change its broader stance and it planned a fresh report, while AppLovin previously demanded a retraction and called the claims “defamatory and baseless.” (Investopedia)
Jefferies leaned the other way. The broker reiterated a buy rating and an $860 price target, calling the recent drop “a great buying opportunity” and arguing fears around CloudX, Meta’s Audience Network and Google’s “Genie” project had become “overblown.” Jefferies framed CloudX as the latest would-be standalone “mediation” product—software that routes ad requests across networks—and said it saw little evidence that heavier bidding for Apple iOS traffic was hitting results. (Investing.com Canada)
UBS trimmed its price target to $686 from $840 and kept a buy rating, pointing to strong advertiser budgets and what it called solid return on ad spend (ROAS) from AppLovin’s Axon 2.0. The bank also flagged competitive risks, including a renewed push by Meta into gaming ads and potential longer-term disruption tied to Google’s Project Genie, while noting rival Unity had shown limited progress. (TipRanks)
AppLovin sits in a crowded lane where the biggest platforms can change the rules quickly. Its pitch rests on performance—getting advertisers measurable outcomes—rather than brand advertising.
The company has also been pushing deeper into e-commerce advertisers, a shift that can broaden budgets but drags it closer to the orbit of Meta and Google, where pricing pressure can show up fast.
The main downside scenario is simple: another round of allegations, or tougher questions about compliance and data practices, keeps the stock tied up in volatility. Separately, if bigger networks bid harder for iOS inventory or change how ads are routed, AppLovin’s margins could look less bulletproof than recent quarters suggest.
For now, the earnings print gives the bulls fresh numbers. The bears still have a long list of doubts, and at least one short seller says it is not done.
