SYDNEY, March 29, 2026, 06:15 AEDT. 1
Australian shares managed to post a weekly gain after a tough run, but Friday’s numbers suggested nerves stuck around. The S&P/ASX 200 slipped 0.11% on the day to settle at 8,516.30. Still, that was enough for a weekly rise of about 1%—the first after three straight weeks in the red. 2
The size of the move isn’t the main story—what’s behind it is. Canberra’s stepping up efforts to secure fuel imports just as the Reserve Bank of Australia flags the risk that an extended Middle East conflict might push prices higher and put a lid on growth. That’s left investors weighing the upside for oil-linked profits against the threat of tougher policy. 3
The sector breakdown Friday left little doubt about the mood. Energy finished up 0.88% and materials ticked 0.18% higher. Information technology, though, sold off 1.53%, with financials giving up 0.21%. Santos was up 1.3%. Ampol gained 2.0%. NextDC took a hit, sliding 7.9%. 4
March 25 proved to be the pivot: the ASX 200 surged 154.9 points, up 1.85%. Softer inflation numbers and flickers of ceasefire optimism in the Middle East had traders moving back into miners and stocks hammered earlier in the month. 5
Australia’s consumer price index didn’t budge in February, with annual inflation slowing to 3.7%. Core inflation—stripping out the wilder swings—remained at 3.3%. Still, Russel Chesler at VanEck pointed out that “uncertainty and volatility” from the war had already left the data behind the curve. 6
Christopher Kent, Assistant Governor at the RBA, echoed that message, putting it bluntly: a drawn-out conflict threatens to weigh on growth and could shake inflation expectations. The central bank just lifted its key rate again this month—second hike in a row—to 4.1%. 7
Even that weekly rebound came with caveats. The ASX’s wrap noted a 6.7% drop in its volatility gauge, but small caps lagged the major index by 0.3 percentage point. Investors seemed to stick with large, liquid stocks, leaving most everything else behind. 8
Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com, flagged that a protracted conflict would pile more pressure on shares, hitting both growth and inflation. Hopes for a “relief rally” look muted, he said. That caution stuck around on Friday: gold stocks dropped 1.5% and are down more than 28% for March. Financials, meanwhile, just logged their fifth straight weekly loss. 2
The week’s key mover isn’t out of the picture yet. Once the ASX closed, Brent crude jumped 4.22% to $112.57 a barrel, with the Dow slipping into correction territory. Oil prices and risk-off sentiment—not corporate headlines—are likely to steer Monday’s session. 9
March 28: Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced plans to tweak Australia’s export-finance rules, letting the government backstop private sector fuel purchases in the wake of six cancelled Asian shipments that left hundreds of service stations out of petrol or diesel. Should supply chains stabilize and diplomatic efforts stick, miners and other cyclical stocks might extend this week’s rebound. Otherwise, with supply jitters, higher prices at the pump, and another potential RBA move on the table, those gains could disappear fast. 3
