SYDNEY, March 27, 2026, 06:39 AEDT
Friday’s open looked soft for Australian shares, with ASX 200 futures off 63 points, or 0.7%, sitting at 8,501. Brent crude surged past $105 a barrel, while equities worldwide dropped as hopes for a swift Iran ceasefire dwindled.
In Australia, that’s hitting home: pricier crude is already finding its way into fuel costs and stoking inflation worries. The Reserve Bank of Australia has flagged that a protracted conflict in the Middle East poses a risk to growth. Meanwhile, with the Strait of Hormuz — a key chokepoint for around 20% of global oil and LNG shipments — still basically closed off, concerns aren’t easing.
Wall Street saw heavier selling as Thursday wore on. By 2:20 p.m. ET, the Dow had shed 428.89 points. The S&P 500 slipped 1.5%, while the Nasdaq tumbled 2.07%—now sitting over 10% off its Oct. 29 closing high, a threshold marking correction territory for the tech-focused gauge.
Energy stocks outperformed, but tech and communications took a hit. Meta tumbled nearly 8%, Alphabet dropped 3%, and Nvidia shed 3.7%. The rout was no longer isolated to oil-linked names, spilling across major sectors.
Selling hit just about everywhere, slicing through regions and asset classes alike. The pan-European STOXX 600 dropped 0.64%, according to Reuters, while Japan’s Nikkei edged down 0.3%. South Korea’s KOSPI posted a steeper fall, down 3.2%. U.S. Treasuries weren’t spared—the 10-year yield edged up to 4.37%. Bloomberg pointed to a sluggish $44 billion Treasury auction, stoking the bond tumble as Brent pushed toward $109.
Things flipped quickly. Stocks had climbed and Brent finished at $102.22 the day before, as traders responded to word that Tehran was considering a U.S. ceasefire offer. That optimism didn’t last—once Iran denied any talks to end the war, the rally fell apart.
Doug Beath at Wells Fargo Investment Institute described the mood as the “fog of war.” Stocks took a hit, Peter Cardillo of Spartan Capital Securities noted, as oil prices pressed higher—traders swung from optimism to risk-off mode in under a day. Reuters
Macro conditions are getting tougher. The OECD, according to Reuters, says the conflict is derailing what could have been stronger global growth. Traders, for their part, have erased any chance of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year. In Australia, RBA assistant governor Christopher Kent is telling policymakers they need to make sure the first oil shock doesn’t settle in as persistent inflation.
Oil remains the wild card. A protracted Hormuz shutdown could pull as much as 13 million to 14 million barrels a day out of global supply, Barclays estimates. Traders in the options market are already stacking up bets on Brent shooting to $150 by late April, Reuters said, if the strait doesn’t reopen.
A swift shift in diplomacy might tamp down the rally. Barclays is sticking with its view: Hormuz traffic should get back to normal by early April, which lines up with Brent averaging around $85 this year. That points to Friday’s Asia session keying off whatever comes next from Washington, Tehran, or the Gulf—rather than from company headlines.
