Sydney, March 17, 2026, 05:55 AEDT
Australian stocks slipped for a third session on Monday. The S&P/ASX 200 dropped 0.4% to close at 8,583.4 as weaker commodity prices pressured mining names and traders dialed back risk ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy call. Activity stayed muted. Ongoing Gulf tensions marked a third week, keeping oil jitters front of mind.
The timing of the drop is tricky. Australia takes center stage during a week crowded with heavyweight central-bank meetings, as traders mostly price in a move to 4.1% on Tuesday. That’s in contrast to what’s expected from the Fed, the ECB and the Bank of England—no change from those camps.
Oil has been the main force behind the shift. Brent sat at $100.56 a barrel on Monday, down 2.5% for the session, but both Brent and U.S. crude have climbed nearly 40% this March. Out of 30 economists, 23 predicted the RBA would opt for a quarter-point hike. Commonwealth Bank economist Belinda Allen said, “We now expect the RBA to hike the cash rate in March and May.” Reuters Indo Premier Sekuritas Reuters
Banks and energy stocks managed to outperform, with financials up 0.4%. Commonwealth Bank climbed 1%, reaching its best mark in over two weeks. The energy sector tacked on 0.5%, notching a fourth consecutive rise. Cliff Man, chief executive of ETF Shares, flagged that “the geopolitical risk premium could persist” and keep supporting energy equities, even if oil prices cool off. Miners struggled in sharp contrast—down 2.4%, hitting lows last seen in early January as iron ore slipped from two-month peaks. Rio Tinto shed 2%, BHP dropped 1.2%, while Fortescue fell hardest, down 3.9%. Indo Premier Sekuritas
Company moves were all over the map. Shares of South32 slid 5.7% after the miner announced it’s putting its Mozal aluminium smelter on care and maintenance. Over at Lynas Rare Earths, stock ticked up 1.4% on news that its U.S. subsidiary signed a binding letter of intent for a rare-earth oxide supply deal with the U.S. government. CEO Amanda Lacaze called the pact key to keeping the U.S. defense industrial base stocked with materials “essential for modern manufacturing.” Indo Premier Sekuritas Reuters
Shares of Perpetual jumped 1.9% Monday after the company struck a deal to offload its wealth management arm to Bain Capital, locking in an upfront payment of A$500 million. Syrah Resources, which mines graphite, added 2.9%. The company and Tesla have pushed back their deadline to resolve an alleged default under their supply contract, now giving themselves until June 1 to sort it out.
The outlook for the immediate future isn’t clear. RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser flagged a “genuine debate” coming up at Tuesday’s meeting, cautioning that acting too quickly might hit the economy hard—especially if fallout from the Middle East ends up dragging on growth more than pushing up inflation. Reuters
“An amplification of the conflict in coming days could still prompt a pause, but our base case now is for a hike,” Deutsche Bank chief economist Phil O’Donaghoe said. So, for investors, the ASX sits in a tight spot: higher oil prices can keep energy shares buoyant, yet a tougher RBA combined with softer commodity prices would just add pressure across the rest of the market. Reuters Reuters
