Aviva plc Restarts £350 Million Buyback as Shares Slide — Why Analysts Still See Value

Aviva plc Restarts £350 Million Buyback as Shares Slide — Why Analysts Still See Value

March 10, 2026

London, March 9, 2026, 23:18 GMT

Aviva plc confirmed Monday it repurchased 20,000 shares for cancellation in a March 6 deal, part of the £350 million buyback announced last week. The shares still slipped 2.58% to finish at 611.2 pence, with the FTSE 100 down 0.34%.

Aviva’s paused buybacks drew attention after its £3.7 billion Direct Line acquisition—a move that catapulted it to the top spot among UK home and motor insurers. Now that the deal is wrapped up, and after last week’s annual results, investors are less focused on M&A. Instead, the spotlight’s on whether the bigger group can address the valuation gap analysts called out Monday.

Last week, Chief Executive Amanda Blanc announced Aviva hit its 2026 financial targets a year ahead of schedule. Along with that, the insurer set out a 26.2 pence final dividend and put its buyback back in motion. Citigroup Global Markets is handling the programme, which kicked off March 6 and should wrap up by Aug. 6.

Aviva reported a 25% jump in operating profit for 2025, hitting 2.203 billion pounds as the insurer benefited from rising general insurance premiums, stronger inflows in its wealth division, and a 174 million-pound boost from Direct Line. General insurance premiums climbed 18% to 14.1 billion pounds. Net inflows in the wealth segment advanced 6% to 10.9 billion pounds.

Some analysts saw reasons to stay upbeat, even with shares down. Deutsche Bank’s Kailesh Mistry noted Aviva is still priced at roughly 10 times expected 2027 earnings—cheaper than European composite insurers and UK life rivals, despite having targets he called “broadly comparable.” UBS’s Nasib Ahmed also pointed to management’s capital generation forecast, suggesting there’s a modest surplus to keep the buyback going. Proactiveinvestors NA

Pricing remains the big issue. Jason Storah, chief executive for Aviva’s UK and Ireland general insurance unit, said the market “needs more rate” despite operating profit for that segment hitting 1.07 billion pounds in 2025. In industry terms, “rate” refers to the premium hikes insurers require to match rising claim costs. Insurance Post

Aviva is aiming for a combined operating ratio under 94% in the UK and Ireland this year, while targeting around 94% for Canada—assuming typical weather patterns hold. That figure, which pits claims and expenses against premiums, signals an underwriting profit when it stays below 100%. For 2025, the group reported a Solvency II shareholder cover ratio—its capital cushion for insurance—at 180%, down from 203% the year before, a decline driven by the Direct Line transaction.

That points to a tangible risk: tougher weather or a surge in claims inflation could throw those goals off track. Storah’s push for higher rates just highlights how much cost pressures are building.

The stock ended Monday far off its 700.6 pence peak for the year. A 20,000-share purchase was disclosed, sharpening focus on how fast Aviva can translate last week’s profit update into tangible capital returns. Investors are watching with a final dividend on the table for May 14, pending shareholder approval.

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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