NEW YORK, March 31, 2026, 16:14 EDT
BHP Group’s U.S. shares rallied 5.4% to $72.74 on Tuesday. Rio Tinto climbed roughly 5%. The gains came as fresh Chinese factory numbers—an official PMI reading—showed the fastest expansion in a year for March, boosting sentiment for the mining giants.
This comes with BHP just weeks out from its April 22 operational review, which will cover the nine months ending March 31. That scheduled production update drops as investors hunt for more clarity around demand in the miner’s key iron ore and copper segments.
Copper delivered 51% of BHP’s operating earnings for the first time in the February half-year, with underlying attributable profit climbing 22% to $6.2 billion. Still, iron ore holds its place at the heart of the group’s business.
March’s PMI jumped to 50.4, up from 49.0—pushing past the 50 threshold that signals growth and beating the Reuters poll’s 50.1 estimate. “The outlook for Q2 is unclear,” Pinpoint Asset Management chief economist Zhiwei Zhang said. But Dan Wang at Eurasia Group flagged the risk of a slowdown in the second half, should the Iran crisis drag on major economies. Reuters
BHP’s iron ore business is still feeling the squeeze. Earlier this month, China cracked down further, expanding curbs on certain BHP shipments as annual supply negotiations dragged on. Then last week, Reuters reported a rare move: a cargo of Jimblebar Fines sold to India, after discounts were slapped on material now blocked from the Chinese market.
But costs are also a wildcard here. Last week, Fortescue’s metals and operations boss Dino Otranto pointed out that “every 10-cent movement” in diesel prices can swing the top four miners’ costs by roughly $500 million. BHP’s Mike Henry, for his part, told reporters the company is watching diesel markets closely, but hasn’t tweaked operations. Reuters
Stocks rallied sharply on Tuesday, picking up momentum as Wall Street bounced back. Investors pushed U.S. shares higher, betting that tensions in the Middle East might cool—a shift that helped lift cyclical stocks hit by earlier worries over oil and inflation.
Relief remains shaky. Iron ore futures hovered near $106 a ton on Monday, boxed into a narrow range while traders tried to balance improving Chinese steel demand with hefty portside inventories and climbing energy prices.
