New York, March 12, 2026, 17:09 EDT
BHP shares listed in New York slid roughly 3.5% to $70.77 on Thursday, following reports that China expanded its ban to include Newman fines, a heavily traded iron ore product from BHP. In Sydney, the miner’s stock ended the session off 1.9% at A$50.98. Singapore iron ore futures surged over 4%, reaching $108.95—the highest mark since January.
Timing is critical here: the supply agreement on the table accounts for most of BHP’s northwest Australian production and represents about 20% of what China buys. RBC’s Kaan Peker put it plainly back in December—the impasse might shape how talks go with Rio Tinto, Fortescue, and Vale too, giving these negotiations weight far past just BHP.
Tight supply is clashing with robust appetite. China brought in 210.02 million metric tons of iron ore during January and February—10% more than last year. According to Alexis Ellender at Kpler, a big chunk of that jump comes from solid flows out of Australia and improved demand at home for steel.
BHP’s earnings profile looks different now. Back in February, copper accounted for 51% of first-half operating earnings, edging past iron ore for the first time. Yet CEO Mike Henry still emphasized that the Western Australia iron ore segment “continues to deliver for shareholders.” Reuters
The company had already flagged that the talks were hitting its bottom line. Back in January, BHP disclosed it was settling for lower prices on some iron ore shipments as negotiations with China Mineral Resources Group dragged on. According to Peker, these restrictions were expected to squeeze the spot market—those cargoes sold outside of annual contracts—helping prop up benchmark prices and partly making up for the discounts BHP was shouldering.
There’s a familiar playbook when BHP grades get shut out. After China ramped up restrictions late last year, mills unable to secure BHP’s Jimblebar fines quickly pivoted to Rio Tinto’s Pilbara Blend Fines. It’s a clear signal: lost BHP volumes don’t just evaporate—they often jump straight to a competitor.
If the standoff stretches further into the year, BHP could be forced to increase discounts once more, searching for extra buyers beyond China. The miner has already diverted some Jimblebar shipments—typically destined for Chinese steelmakers—to ports in Malaysia and Vietnam after previous restrictions left cargoes stuck at Chinese docks.
For Canberra, these negotiations go beyond a simple business spat. Treasury figures indicate that each $10 swing in iron ore prices nudges 2025-26 tax revenue by roughly A$500 million. Last month, Henry acknowledged the price gap between BHP and the Chinese buyer was “a little bit wider” than usual, but insisted a deal was still within reach. Reuters
