NEW YORK, March 26, 2026, 17:29 EDT
- BHP’s U.S.-listed shares slipped $1.51 to $68.50 late Thursday, despite a 6% week-on-week drop in Chinese port inventories for its Jimblebar ore.
- Markets are watching to see if China’s short-lived delivery break signals a genuine shift in BHP’s contract dispute—or just a temporary breather—as diesel prices push higher throughout the sector.
BHP Group’s U.S.-listed shares dropped $1.51 to $68.50 on Thursday. Fresh trade data signaled some of its iron ore finally getting cleared from Chinese ports, but the stock still slid. Rio Tinto shed $1.77 to close at $85.79, and Vale eased down $0.18 to $14.95.
Mixed signals have investors on edge. They’re weighing whether BHP’s standoff with China’s state iron ore buyer is actually winding down or just on hold. All this as the miner hands out a 73 U.S. cent half-year dividend and now contends with a fresh fuel shock triggered by the Middle East conflict.
BHP’s Jimblebar fines inventories dropped sharply at 15 key Chinese ports, sliding 6% from the previous week to 8.9 million metric tons as of March 24—levels not seen since the end of January. Traders pointed to steel mills hastily collecting cargo during a one-week reprieve. For one trader, the weekly decline marked the most pronounced since March 2025.
China Mineral Resources Group, or CMRG, allowed a narrow exemption for steelmakers — not traders — on March 13. Just earlier this month, CMRG tightened its grip on BHP cargoes, instructing certain traders to cut back on seaborne purchases of Mac fines, Newman fines and Newman lumps, as negotiations over BHP’s 2026 supply deal dragged on.
BHP is shopping around for alternative buyers. One shipment of Jimblebar fines—a rare move—is now bound for India, drawn by discounts. According to Lalit Ladkat, senior analyst at CRU, JSW Steel’s appetite is a main force behind the surge in India’s iron ore imports, which could climb to a seven-year peak in 2025-26.
The dispute continues to weigh on a major profit source. Back in February, BHP flagged that the Jimblebar ban had already dragged on prices. Copper might have edged past iron ore as BHP’s top earner for the December half, yet iron ore still racked up $7.5 billion in operating earnings.
Management hasn’t budged from its emphasis on relationships. Back in February, outgoing CEO Mike Henry described discussions with China as “tough.” Brandon Craig, set to step in July 1, told reporters last week that keeping close connections with both governments and customers would be “really critical.” In a note, RBC Capital Markets’ Kaan Peker called the CEO transition “more evolutionary than transformational.” Reuters
Cost pressure isn’t letting up. Fortescue metals chief Dino Otranto pointed out Monday that a ten-cent swing in diesel hits the top four miners’ cost base by roughly $500 million—margins can get squeezed fast when fuel prices spike.
The inventory dip doesn’t erase the bigger risk. Jimblebar stocks at those ports are still sitting 406% above where they were in late September, and the pause in March didn’t last. Reserve Bank of Australia Assistant Governor Christopher Kent, speaking Thursday, flagged that an extended Middle East conflict could hit the economy harder and keep energy-driven inflation elevated.
BHP finished Thursday’s session in Sydney just a touch higher, up 0.22% to A$50.23. The action was subdued compared with what unfolded later in New York.
