NEW YORK, Feb 17, 2026, 06:17 (EST)
- Bitcoin hovered around $67,852, slipping roughly 0.9% as the cryptocurrency once more failed to breach the $70,000 mark.
- Two separate “capitulation” waves popped up in on-chain analysis, most of the realised losses landing with short-term holders.
- Matrixport flagged bear-market signals—echoed in broader market talk—while certain analysts still call this consolidation, not outright collapse.
On Tuesday, bitcoin slipped roughly 0.9% to trade near $67,852 after yet another unsuccessful attempt to stay above the $70,000 level. The cryptocurrency reached as high as $69,999 during the session but then dropped to $67,329. Ether was last seen around $1,970.
The market’s still chewing over what to make of that early-February tumble. Bitcoin hit a low of $60,033 this year and is hanging around 45% off its $126,251 peak, Lee Hardman at MUFG pointed out in his Feb. 17 note. Right now, the token is sitting under its estimated mining cost—about $87,000, according to Hardman. (MUFG Research)
Some traders are throwing around the term bear market—typically a 20% slide from a recent high. Others chalk all this up to a messy post-boom shakeout. “The short-term structure appears fragile,” said Riya Sehgal, research analyst at Delta Exchange, pointing to weaker bitcoin ETF inflows since mid-January. WazirX founder Nischal Shetty, on the other hand, described the tight trading range as “steady demand absorption rather than weakness.” (The Economic Times)
According to CryptoSlate, on-chain bitcoin data shows the slide to $60,000 played out in two phases, as distinct seller groups capitulated at different moments. Short-term holders, it noted, realized roughly $1.14 billion in losses in a single day, while long-term holders saw about $225 million. The outlet flagged November 2025 and February 2026 as individual capitulation points, with seller groups shifting out over time. (CryptoSlate)
A report from Matrixport making the rounds on Binance Square took a different tack, focusing on how often steep 30-day slides show up. The authors pointed out that drops of over 20% in a 30-day stretch are uncommon in bull markets but “the norm” during bear runs. The latest 30-day figure? About -28%. The note told investors to “maintain discipline, avoid complacency” and stay alert for tactical plays in the ongoing downtrend. (Binance)
The retail crowd’s arguments have taken some unusual turns. According to CryptoPotato, when they asked OpenAI’s ChatGPT about bitcoin, the AI called it a bear market and pegged $60,000 as “critical support.” The bot gave a 35% probability that $60,000 marked the bottom, but suggested $50,000 to $52,000 was a more probable range. (CryptoPotato)
In the end, the market’s chasing the identical price move from three angles: on-chain stress trades, models fixated on trends and drawdowns, plus those headline-fueled punts. That tricky bit remains. Price needs to actually move.
Screens are stuck on an old floor near $60,000 and a hard cap at $70,000. Bitcoin hasn’t made a decisive move between those markers, so every day in this range is just more room for fresh narratives—and debates—to swirl.
The risk is straightforward: bitcoin dipping under $60,000 and holding puts that “capitulation-cleared-the-weak-hands” idea in doubt, opening the door for another round of leveraged selling. ETFs haven’t been steady either—a rough patch or two, and sentiment flips fast.
Right now, the tape points to consolidation. What comes next? Traders are watching for bitcoin to retake $70,000 and keep it there—otherwise, another flush could be on deck.
