London, March 16, 2026, 14:11 GMT
BP shares climbed to a new yearly peak on Monday, buoyed by oil surging past $100. Fresh demand for energy names came as tensions near Iran threatened the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly a fifth of the world’s energy shipments. The stock hovered near 537.8 pence in London, after an earlier spike to 546 pence. Shell posted gains as well.
This shift comes at a pivotal moment for BP, which remains in repair mode with investors after it paused $750 million in quarterly buybacks back in February—choosing to focus on debt reduction and channeling more capital toward oil and gas. Higher crude prices could give that plan a boost, providing extra cash flow right as the company’s latest overhaul faces increased investor inspection.
By early afternoon in Europe, Brent remained above $102 a barrel despite the dip on Monday. Kenneth Broux, who leads corporate research FX and rates at Societe Generale, pointed to the main concern for markets: whether this oil shock sparks “second-round inflation effects” or drags economies closer to recession. Reuters
BP had its own headlines Friday, announcing it just got the green light from U.S. regulators to proceed with Kaskida—a $5 billion Gulf of Mexico development. The project, which BP estimates could tap into 10 billion barrels of resources, targets first production in 2029.
BP and Shell managed to edge higher, standing out on a mostly unchanged FTSE 100 and a softer European session. Investors appear to be leaning on oil majors to hedge against the ongoing energy shock, which continues to churn up the outlook for interest-rate cuts. “Policy was likely to stay ‘on hold’ while markets waited for fresh forecasts from central banks this week,” said Jeremy Batstone-Carr, European strategist at Raymond James. Reuters
The trade comes with baggage. According to Reuters calculations, BP sourced roughly 22% of its 2025 oil and gas output from the Middle East, Egypt included. Shell, by comparison, sits at about 11%. So BP stands to gain more from rising crude. But a bigger reliance also means more at stake if things get messy.
Broker notes are reflecting the pressure. Barclays on Friday flagged a scenario where Brent jumps to $100 a barrel in 2026 if the strait stays closed for four to six weeks. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, expects Brent to average above $100 this month.
Still, the rally faces headwinds. Oil slipped Monday, with some shipments restarting at Fujairah and the International Energy Agency noting that record emergency stockpile releases are about to hit the market. PVM analyst Tamas Varga flagged the risk: a drawn-out conflict could get ugly fast as inventories dwindle and disruptions pile up across production, exports, and refining.
