London, March 2, 2026, 08:34 (GMT) — Regular session
- BP shares climbed, tracking crude prices that touched multi-month peaks amid Middle East supply concerns.
- Brent surged up to 13% following turmoil near the Strait of Hormuz.
- JPMorgan is sticking with a Neutral rating on BP but has bumped up its target price to 520p.
BP Plc (BP.L) jumped 5.5% to 503.9 pence at the start of Monday’s session in London, lifted by a strong rally in crude. Shares moved in a range from 496.7 to 507.1 pence. 1
Brent crude futures jumped up to 13% before settling 9.5% higher at $79.78 a barrel by 0748 GMT, as weekend strikes and reprisal attacks snarled shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. “Markets are acknowledging the seriousness of the conflict, but are also signalling that, for now, this is a geopolitical shock, not a systemic crisis,” said Priyanka Sachdeva, senior analyst at Phillip Nova. 2
Hormuz is where traders are zeroing in. That narrow chokepoint sees over 20% of the world’s oil crossing daily, and right now tanker companies, oil majors, and big trading firms have halted shipments of crude, fuels, and LNG through the Strait, according to trading sources. “The key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 3
Oil-linked stocks caught a bid even as European shares dropped. By 0812 GMT, the STOXX 600 had slid 1.8%. Energy names outperformed, up 3.5%, with Shell and TotalEnergies both trading higher. 4
Analysts are crunching numbers on how long the disruption drags on, and just how much crude gets held back from the market. Citi puts Brent somewhere in the $80–$90 range for at least the next week, basing that on their central scenario, but sees prices slipping back toward $70 if tensions ease. Goldman Sachs, for its part, has pegged the “risk premium” at $18 a barrel—the extra pricing traders tack on for supply threats. 5
JPMorgan held its Neutral stance on BP, but analyst Matthew Lofting bumped the target up to 520 pence from the previous 500. 6
Energy stocks, however, have a habit of surrendering gains quickly if diplomatic moves cool tensions. Should tanker movements resume sooner than traders anticipate, crude prices could drop and unwind the rally that’s boosted BP and similar names.
BP has been working to reassure investors following the suspension of $750 million in quarterly buybacks while it moves to reduce debt and absorbs roughly $4 billion in charges tied to renewables and biogas. The company announced Meg O’Neill is set to become CEO in April. 7
Right now, tanker movement and insurance in the Strait of Hormuz are in focus for traders, along with the question of whether OPEC+ — that’s OPEC together with Russia and some others — will go beyond its planned April bump in output. For BP shareholders, the next dates to circle are March 27 for the dividend and April 28 for first-quarter results. 8
