London, March 2, 2026, 11:15 GMT — Regular session
- BP shares moved higher, oil prices climbing on concerns that Middle East supply routes could face disruptions.
- Energy shares surged, bucking the broader downturn in European equities.
- Attention shifts to oil movement through the Strait of Hormuz, the state of tanker insurance, and what OPEC+ does next with supply.
BP stock climbed Monday, gaining roughly 1.7% to 485.6 pence, lifted by a surge in oil prices as renewed Middle East tensions rattled markets. Earlier, shares hit a session high of 508.6 pence. 1
BP’s cash flow remains closely linked to crude and gas, so when energy prices surge, traders often snap up shares of large integrated oil companies. In risk-off markets, these stocks can serve as a kind of hedge.
The oil rally arrives at a delicate juncture for markets. Higher energy costs threaten to stoke inflation, pressure growth, and shake up outlooks on both rates and earnings.
Brent crude surged up to 13%, trading roughly 8% higher at $78.87 a barrel as of 0919 GMT, as Iranian retaliation snarled traffic in the vital Strait of Hormuz. “The latest move reflects uncertainty around the scale and duration of the current conflict,” said James Hosie at Shore Capital. 2
BP and Shell managed to climb about 6% apiece at their highs, bucking the downtrend that hit most European equities, Reuters reported. Energy names were standouts as stocks broadly slipped. 3
BP is getting a boost mainly from that backdrop today. Higher realised prices feed into better upstream earnings. And when volatility picks up, trading desks at the majors typically handle more volume and see spreads widen.
Crude prices are likely to remain high for the next few days, analysts say, with traders tracking tanker traffic and potential new restrictions at the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs estimates the current “risk premium” tied to uncertainty at roughly $18 per barrel, cautioning that prices might climb “substantially more” if the situation drags on. 4
The trade isn’t one-way traffic. Should flows snap back to normal or tensions ease, crude prices can drop in a hurry, and energy stocks tend to shed their gains just as fast.
BP’s decision to halt share buybacks at its last earnings update has left the stock with less technical support compared to some rivals, as cash gets funneled toward debt reduction instead. 5
BP’s next big test for investors comes on April 28, with first-quarter earnings and its dividend update set to land. That’s when the company will need to quantify the recent price shock roiling the market. 6
