London, Feb 27, 2026, 18:25 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent crude futures were up about 3% in afternoon trade, hovering near multi-month highs.
- Traders priced in higher Middle East supply risk as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks slipped into next week.
- The next test is OPEC+’s March 1 meeting on April output and the Vienna technical talks that follow.
Brent crude futures rose about 3% on Friday, as the U.S. and Iran extended nuclear talks and the market kept a fresh premium on any risk to Middle East supplies. 1
By 1422 GMT, Brent was up $2.09 at $72.84 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was up $2.33 at $67.54, with both benchmarks trading at multi-month highs. 1
Why it matters now is simple: the talks are live, the military language is loud, and oil’s biggest chokepoint sits in the middle. A “risk premium” is the extra price traders pay for supply uncertainty, and analysts say that premium has fattened fast. 1
“Uncertainty prevails, fear is pushing prices higher today,” said Tamas Varga, an oil analyst at PVM, pointing to the talks and the risk of U.S. military action. 1
The Geneva round ended without a deal, though the Omani mediator said the sides made progress, and technical-level discussions are scheduled for Vienna next week. That pushed crude around during the week and left traders chasing headlines into the weekend. 1
DBS analyst Suvro Sarkar said the latest talks still offered “some hope” of a peaceful outcome, but he added that military strikes were not off the table. 1
The stakes are outsized because of geography. Sarkar estimated a $8-$10 a barrel geopolitical premium on fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, a channel that carries about 20% of global oil supply. 1
Supply-side positioning is starting to show through. Reuters reported Abu Dhabi is set to export more Murban crude in April, while Saudi Arabia may lift April prices to Asia as Indian demand rises and refiners look to replace some Russian barrels. 1
Inventories, meanwhile, have not helped the bulls’ case much. U.S. crude stocks rose by 16 million barrels last week, far above the 1.5-million-barrel build expected in a Reuters poll, though the market response was muted as geopolitics dominated. 2
“A bearish (EIA) report with a large crude build… the prices impact was however limited,” said Giovanni Staunovo, commodity analyst at UBS, citing Middle East tensions as the bigger driver. 2
The risk is that the same headlines that lifted Brent can unwind the move. A clearer path to a deal could drain that risk premium quickly, while producers may add barrels back: OPEC+ is expected to consider raising output by 137,000 barrels per day for April at its March 1 meeting, after pausing increases in the first quarter. 1
Beyond the weekend, the market’s map has two pins: OPEC+ on March 1, then the Vienna technical talks next week. In the background, analysts now see Brent averaging $63.85 a barrel in 2026, even as they warn a surplus later this year could cap rallies once geopolitics fades. 3
