London, Feb 13, 2026, 18:33 GMT — Regular session
Brent crude futures held near $68 a barrel on Friday, as traders weighed a possible OPEC+ supply increase against softer U.S. inflation data and fading war-risk nerves. Brent was up 11 cents, or 0.16%, at $67.63 a barrel by 1722 GMT after touching an intraday low of $66.89, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate was flat at $62.84. Both contracts were headed for weekly losses after Thursday’s slide, and Dennis Kissler, senior vice president of trading at BOK Financial, said “Looks like inflation is stabilizing,” but warned that more OPEC output could be “the negative.” (Reuters)
The supply question is getting louder. OPEC+ is leaning towards resuming oil output increases from April, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters, with eight members due to meet on March 1 after pausing hikes for the first quarter. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak pointed to firmer seasonal demand, saying: “Starting from around March and April, demand is gradually increasing.” (Reuters)
Demand signals have gone the other way. The International Energy Agency cut its forecast for global oil demand growth this year to 850,000 barrels per day (bpd), and said supply could still exceed demand by about 3.73 million bpd in 2026 — a surplus it said would be close to 4% of world demand. (Reuters)
Friday’s U.S. inflation data added another push-and-pull factor for crude. The Labor Department said the consumer price index rose 0.2% in January and core CPI — which strips out food and energy — increased 0.3%, with Edward Jones economist James McCann calling it “a noisy report” that likely would not change the Federal Reserve’s near-term stance. (Reuters)
The market was still digesting Thursday’s rout. Brent settled down $1.88, or 2.71%, at $67.52 a barrel, and WTI fell $1.79, or 2.77%, to $62.84 after the IEA downgrade and as geopolitical risk ebbed. “The fact that President Trump continues to negotiate with Iran would lead to a reduction of geopolitical risk,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. (Reuters)
U.S. inventory data also kept a lid on prices. The Energy Information Administration’s weekly report showed commercial crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million in the week ending Feb. 6, while refineries ran at 89.4% of capacity.
Politics remained a live input. The Kremlin said the next round of peace talks on Ukraine would take place next week, and three sources familiar with the matter said U.S. officials had proposed a trilateral meeting on Monday and Tuesday in Miami. (Reuters)
Another supply lever is Venezuela. The United States on Friday issued two general licenses that allow Chevron, BP, Eni, Shell and Repsol to operate oil and gas projects in the OPEC member, while a separate authorization lets companies negotiate new investment contracts with PDVSA, subject to further permits. The move was the biggest relaxation of sanctions since U.S. forces captured and removed President Nicolas Maduro last month, and it requires royalty and tax payments to go through a U.S.-controlled deposit fund, according to the Treasury’s terms. (Reuters)
But the story can still flip fast. A decision by OPEC+ to open the taps into April, alongside weaker demand, could push Brent back toward recent lows; if diplomacy with Iran and Russia progresses, the risk premium embedded in crude could shrink. Venezuela is not a straight line either — “30% growth this year is a bit fantastical,” former U.S. State Department energy diplomat David Goldwyn said, citing the state of the country’s infrastructure. (Reuters)
Next up for traders is the next read on U.S. stockpiles. The EIA said its Weekly Petroleum Status Report will be released on Thursday, Feb. 19 — later than usual because of a U.S. federal government closure on Monday, Feb. 16. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
