London, Feb 23, 2026, 19:49 GMT — Regular session.
- Brent pulled back from a six-month peak, though the bulk of last week’s gains remain intact.
- The next clear catalyst: U.S.-Iran nuclear talks set for Thursday.
- Tariff questions hang over the market, but traders keep one eye on persistent near-term supply strains.
Brent crude slipped 37 cents, or 0.52%, to $71.39 a barrel as of 1744 GMT on Monday, backing off after reaching its highest level since July 2025. U.S. WTI dropped 27 cents, or 0.41%, settling at $66.21. (Reuters)
Hard to call this a reversal—Brent barely gave up ground after last week’s more than 5% surge. Traders are still watching for fallout from the U.S.-Iran standoff, which has markets on edge over possible Gulf supply hits and tighter flows. (Reuters)
The timing’s suddenly crucial. With a third set of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks set for Thursday, traders are scrambling to weigh the spread—will a breakthrough knock down the risk premium, or does another standoff just push it higher? (Reuters)
Iran appears willing to make concessions on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief and acknowledgment of its uranium enrichment rights, a senior Iranian official told Reuters before the talks. “That seemed to suggest that they are more open to talking about their nuclear program,” said Phil Flynn, analyst at Price Futures Group. Still, Flynn noted the risk of an attack is “high.” (Reuters)
Trade policy is shifting too. Last week, the U.S. Supreme Court tossed out major elements of President Donald Trump’s tariff agenda. U.S. Customs and Border Protection responded, announcing it would stop collecting tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting at 0501 GMT on Tuesday. Still, Trump said he’d bump a temporary tariff to 15% from 10%. (Reuters)
Tamas Varga at PVM Oil Associates says, “With the next, and possibly last, round of the Iranian nuclear talks not until Thursday, focus is on” the tariff ruling and what comes out of Washington. (Reuters)
Weather’s a wildcard right now. A winter storm sweeping through the U.S. Northeast bumped diesel crack spreads up roughly 5% on Monday. That’s the key margin — the gap between diesel and crude prices that refiners eye for demand cues. (Reuters)
Oil’s rally is now showing up in stocks. On Monday, Europe’s oil and gas sector index notched a new all-time high, finally moving past its 2007 record after Brent touched $72.44 a barrel for a moment. By 1450 in London, the sector was ahead by 1.5%. (Reuters)
As for what happens beyond the headlines, banks are crunching the numbers. Goldman Sachs bumped up its fourth-quarter 2026 projections by $6, now calling for $60 Brent and $56 WTI. The bank pointed to lower OECD inventories but hasn’t changed its call that 2026 shapes up as a surplus year—unless the market sees a major shock. (Reuters)
But when crude climbs, it doesn’t stay a sideshow for long. Reuters columnist Jamie McGeever points out that Brent’s latest bounce is wiping away those “base effects” that had been pulling inflation down on a year-over-year basis. Analysts say if oil keeps rising by $10, that could tack on as much as 0.2 percentage point to U.S. annual inflation. (Reuters)
The trade cuts both ways. Signs of diplomatic movement with Iran, or even a whiff of sanctions relief bringing more supply, could knock down the geopolitical premium propping up prices. Goldman noted the risks on the downside if supply from Iran or Russia loosens up. (Reuters)
Thursday brings the latest round of U.S.-Iran talks, a focal point for the week. Eyes are also on how the tariff reset from Washington plays out after the CBP halt kicks in early Tuesday—traders are gauging if this move stirs up broader risk sentiment as the week unfolds. (Reuters)
