LONDON, March 13, 2026, 16:21 GMT
Centrica shares held near a 52-week high on Friday, up about 0.5% at 207.86 pence by 15:47 London time. The stock had touched 210 pence earlier in the session and was building on Thursday’s 3.09% jump to 206.8 pence, a move that pushed it through its previous one-year peak. 1
The move matters now because Britain’s energy shock is getting worse, not better. Reuters reported that wholesale gas prices have risen more than 60% over the past two weeks, and Cornwall Insight now sees Ofgem’s July price cap — the maximum suppliers can charge households on default tariffs — climbing to 1,827 pounds from 1,641 pounds in April; Britain still gets about 30% of its electricity from gas-fired plants and uses gas in more than 70% of homes. 2
That backdrop has lifted the whole sector. London’s FTSE 100 was down 0.3% on Friday morning, but the energy index rose 1.3% with BP and Shell higher, after the FTSE 350 energy index jumped 2.6% to a record high on Thursday. 3
Citi’s call has helped. The bank upgraded Centrica to buy this week and raised its target to 218 pence from 200 pence. Analyst Jenny Ping said the shift in the “political backdrop” makes government support for Centrica’s Rough gas storage site “more probable”, and Citi said an initial 100 million pounds of running-cost support could keep the asset operating, with scope for a further 1 billion pounds to extend its life. 4
That rebound is a sharp turn from Feb. 19, when British Gas owner Centrica paused its buyback after reporting a 39% fall in 2025 core profit and cutting its 2026 outlook for Optimisation, the trading arm that buys, stores and sells gas and power. JPMorgan said then the lower outlook and 600 million pounds of transformation costs could drive near-term estimate cuts, though Chief Executive Chris O’Shea said Sizewell C, Grain LNG and meter assets were laying the groundwork for “more stable and predictable earnings”. 5
The retail side still looks crowded. Reuters reported on Thursday that Tesla won approval to supply electricity in Britain, setting up a new rival to British Gas, Octopus Energy and EDF just as households brace for another rise in bills from July. 6
But the bull case depends on prices and policy staying supportive. Citi’s bear case is 180 pence if UK power and gas price curves fall 20% and household-supply operating margins shrink, and the bank also flagged falling commodity prices, adverse decisions on Rough and poor acquisition discipline as the main downside risks. 4
The next markers are close. Ofgem is due to publish the new price cap by May 27, while Centrica is still awaiting the government’s consultation outcome for gas storage. Berenberg’s Jonathan Stubbs said the fallout should stay limited if the Strait of Hormuz reopens by end-March, but “persistently high energy prices pose the real risk” if it does not. 2
