NEW YORK, March 4, 2026, 06:01 EST
- Circle shares picked up roughly 3.6% after Mizuho bumped its price target up to $100, sticking with a neutral stance.
- Analyst Dan Dolev flagged oil-driven inflation as a risk that might push back U.S. rate cuts
- Circle’s CFO and one of its directors offloaded shares in late February, according to new filings.
Shares of Circle Internet Group climbed roughly 3.6% to $99.63 Wednesday, following Mizuho Securities’ move to boost its price target to $100 while maintaining a neutral stance on the stablecoin company. Analyst Dan Dolev pointed to higher oil prices as a possible inflation driver, warning, “Rising oil prices could drive up inflation, lowering the odds of rate cuts.” 1
Investors are still wrestling with how to value Circle, mostly as a play on interest rates. The company, which runs the USDC stablecoin pegged to the dollar and backed by reserves, generates revenue from parking those reserves in bank accounts and short-term Treasuries. Seaport Research Partners’ Jeff Cantwell called out the ongoing fast growth for USDC, while CEO Jeremy Allaire flagged that higher rates could “slow down the velocity of money.” 2
Oil rallied Wednesday after Iran struck ships and energy infrastructure, closing the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said — a move that blocks one of the world’s main arteries for crude and gas. The jump in energy prices risks stoking inflation and could muddy the outlook for U.S. rate moves, something Circle’s investors watch closely. 3
Dolev’s $100 price target is right near the stock’s last trade, so there’s not much margin for missteps. Shares have been volatile, reacting to changes in yield expectations, despite mostly calm crypto prices.
Regulatory filings detail a fresh round of insider selling in late February. Chief Financial Officer Jeremy Fox-Geen unloaded 47,908 shares at $90 apiece, executing the trade through a Rule 10b5-1 plan. Director Rajeev V. Date also sold—moving 23,254 shares via a charitable remainder trust at a weighted average of $89.62. That’s all according to the filings. 4
A 10b5-1 plan lays out trades in advance, letting insiders buy or sell shares on a fixed timetable—meant to minimize the chance of trading on information that isn’t public. Still, if insiders sell in groups, especially as a stock picks up speed, it can sour investor mood.
Stablecoins are increasingly under the microscope from regulators as they expand. A European Central Bank paper out this week flagged risks: stablecoins could undermine monetary policy and drain deposits from banks. The ECB called for “meaningful” regulation—reserve transparency and stronger redemption protections top the list. 5
Circle’s USDC goes up against other private tokens like Tether’s USDT, along with a crop of fresh dollar-pegged coins rolled out by exchanges and payments firms. Issuers are caught in a two-way battle: regulatory compliance and getting their coins into users’ hands.
Circle’s main profit driver has a downside, too. A sharp drop in short-term U.S. rates pushes down the yield on its reserve assets, pulling reserve income lower. On top of that, any new rules limiting acceptable backing or altering redemption mechanics could push up costs and put the brakes on growth.
