Sydney, June 11, 2026, 09:32 AEST
- Cleanaway Waste Management finished Wednesday at A$2.39, rising 0.84%. The stock edged out the S&P/ASX 200, which gained 0.57%.
- The key question for the stock now is if fuel-cost recovery can offset weaker FY26 earnings guidance.
- Investors are watching three dates: the June 30 year-end, contract repricing on July 1, and the FY26 results presentation, which lands August 20.
Cleanaway Waste Management Ltd. shares were up Wednesday, closing at A$2.39 for a 0.84% gain. The move gave investors a modest lift, but questions remain over how quickly Australia’s top waste group can offset rising fuel and logistics costs to safeguard FY26 earnings. The S&P/ASX 200 added 0.57% to 8,653.30.
There was no new company filing tied to the move. Cleanaway’s ASX announcements showed its most recent posts were substantial-holder notices on May 20 and May 19, with earlier May items covering a chair-elect update and a result from a past landfill levy court fight.
Price moves today look driven by positioning, not fresh news. Cleanaway shares have rebounded from the post-April warning drop, but they’re still down 12.45% over the year, according to Trading Economics. The past four weeks saw the stock climb 7.17%.
Investors are sticking to the April trading update. Cleanaway dropped its FY26 EBIT guidance to A$460 million–A$480 million, down from A$480 million–A$500 million. The company said direct fuel and supplier costs are up, third-party logistics are more expensive, and Contract Resources work in the Middle East is weaker. That all adds up to about A$20 million of downside for FY26 EBIT, according to Cleanaway.
Cleanaway said the impact is mostly due to timing, not lasting margin pressure. The company told investors that most contract prices are set to pass through recent fuel cost hikes by July 1, though some changes will only show up after FY27 starts. That leaves the next several weeks as key for the investment story.
Cleanaway’s April downgrade cut back some of the positive sentiment from February, when the company posted a 13.0% rise in 1H FY26 net revenue to A$1.88 billion. Underlying EBIT climbed 16.9% to A$228.2 million. The EBIT margin added 40 basis points to reach 12.2%, supported by pricing, labour savings and changes in the fleet.
Chief Executive Mark Schubert had said then that “earnings and free cash flow will accelerate in the second half.” That call matters more now, with the market likely to look at the full year in light of the fuel-cost reset later on, not just the strong first half numbers.
Solid Waste Services led in the first half, with net revenue up 7.5% and EBIT up 11.0%. Industrial Services jumped too, thanks to the Contract Resources deal—segment revenue surged 74.3%, EBIT climbed 164.2%. But that Middle East-focused business was also named in April as a source of the FY26 headwind.
Shares stayed muted. Statutory EBIT dropped 21.2% for the half, after factoring in A$91.0 million of significant and one-off items. Free cash flow slid 21.5% to A$74.2 million. Investors still need to look past headline numbers to get at core earnings.
Legal issues are still hanging over the company. On May 7, Cleanaway said the Victorian Supreme Court sided with the EPA in a case over an alleged FY18 landfill levy underpayment at the Melbourne Regional Landfill. The dispute over FY18 is for A$6.9 million. EPA audits for FY19 and FY22 showed more alleged underpayments of A$4.7 million and A$7.2 million, but Cleanaway said those later amounts were not decided in that court ruling.
Consensus is still on the bullish side. Stockopedia keeps an overall Buy rating on Cleanaway, and the consensus target stands at A$3.04—28% above the last close at A$2.37. That upside relies on execution, not just market moves, with fuel pass-through, cost cuts, the Contract Resources deal and cash conversion all in the mix.
Risks for Cleanaway include a longer-than-expected lag in fuel recovery, ongoing volatility in diesel prices, or a drop in volumes before the company can push higher costs onto customers. A tougher result in the landfill levy dispute, more customer turnover, rising bad debts, or weaker market demand would also put pressure on the company’s new FY26 guidance.
Cleanaway wraps up its financial year on June 30, with its FY26 results investor presentation set for August 20. Investors will be looking to see if the July 1 contract resets helped reverse the April fuel-cost squeeze, or if margins stay under pressure.
