SYDNEY, June 28, 2026, 23:02 (AEST)
- Commonwealth Bank of Australia ASX:CBA finished the day Friday at A$162.02, dropping 0.42%. Shares slipped 0.23% across the week.
- The S&P/ASX 200 ended Friday up 0.18%. The index dropped 0.7% over the week.
- CBA heads into the last two trading days of FY26 down 11.68% for the year, pulling back after rising 46.12% in FY25.
- Hedge funds are sitting on nearly A$11 billion in declared short bets against the big four banks, most of it aimed at CBA.
Commonwealth Bank of Australia ASX:CBA is finishing the financial year with shares steady near A$162. The price looks quiet, but under the surface there’s tension. Valuation debates, short positions and rate outlooks are all in play.
The ASX cash market stayed closed Sunday, with regular trading hours set from around 09:59:45 until 16:00 Sydney time. CBA faces its next session when the market opens again on Monday.
CBA dropped 0.42% to A$162.02 on Friday, trading from A$161.28 up to A$163.20. The stock lost 0.23% over the week—Friday’s close compared to A$162.40 last week. CBA hit A$164.79 at Wednesday’s close, but then gave back 1.68% in the next two days.
Slight weekly losses outperformed the broader S&P/ASX 200, which gave up 0.7% this week. The index added 0.18% on Friday to close at 8,764.2, helped by gains in gold miners and resource stocks. Big banks didn’t move much, with AAP and CBA Newsroom describing their Friday as “relatively subdued.” CommBank
CBA’s big drop in the financial year draws more attention. The bank is down 11.68% so far in FY26, after a 46.12% jump in FY25, Intelligent Investor data shows. That’s important as CBA is still a top index weight in many Australian retirement and income funds, and this year’s slide hasn’t come with any big hit to reported profits.
Analyst targets leave bears in play. Simply Wall St tracked 14 analysts with an average 12-month target of A$122.57. Targets ranged from A$90.00 to A$142.26. The average showed a 24.77% downside compared to the share price in their dataset, and the top target was still under Friday’s close.
CBA’s drop in May prompted Morningstar analyst Nathan Zaia to say the shares looked “materially overvalued.” Zaia bumped up Morningstar’s fair value estimate to A$105 after the third-quarter profit update, but is still cautious, arguing valuation multiples look stretched against mid-single-digit earnings growth. Morningstar
Short sellers keep pushing. VanEck said hedge funds had close to A$11 billion in disclosed short bets spread over Commonwealth Bank, Westpac Banking Corp ASX:WBC, National Australia Bank ASX:NAB and ANZ Group Holdings ASX:ANZ. That’s the highest combined major-bank short in the data since ASIC started tracking in 2010. AFR reported CBA alone accounted for just over half of the A$10.9 billion in overall shorts.
The short-selling data isn’t complete. ASIC says its aggregate reports are based on what short sellers submit, and it can’t verify each report or guarantee every short seller, in Australia or offshore, has lodged their data. VanEck said some of the bearish positions on banks might be in derivatives, which ASIC’s short-selling figures don’t capture.
CBA’s numbers offer the other side of the trade. The lender turned in record first-half cash net profit after tax of A$5.45 billion for the six months ended Dec. 31. The bank also bumped up its interim dividend to A$2.35 a share. Net interest margin slipped 4 basis points to 2.04%, pointing to ongoing pressure from mortgage and deposit competition on pricing.
Rates still look like the next test. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% on June 16, ending a run of three hikes this year. Recent official data gave more reason for the RBA to stay cautious. The ABS reported May CPI up 4.0% from a year earlier, a touch lower than April’s 4.2%. But the trimmed mean inflation figure rose to 3.6% from 3.4%.
CBA economists are holding off on calling the labour market weak. “The labour market remains a little tight but is slowly loosening,” CBA economist Harry Ottley said after May’s jobless rate eased to 4.4% and jobs rose by 40,300. CommBank
No CBA trading update is slated this week. The bank is next expected to report on Aug. 12 with its full-year numbers and final dividend. Until then, watch the last two FY26 sessions to see if CBA hangs on to A$160 as shorts, rate shops and income funds square off ahead of the new year.
