SYDNEY, April 3, 2026, 07:11 AEDT
Commonwealth Bank of Australia reported Thursday that its weekly card data up to March 27 reveals a notable jump in fuel spending, with the Middle East conflict sending petrol and diesel prices higher—though total household spending barely budged. “Higher fuel prices were the most immediate transmission channel” from the conflict to Australia’s economy, said Belinda Allen, the bank’s head of Australian economics. 1
CBA’s card flow data lands early, giving a glimpse into consumer behavior just after the Reserve Bank of Australia delivered its quarter-point hike to 4.1% in March—passed narrowly, 5-4. Traders are factoring in about a 60% probability of another move in May. On Thursday, the Albanese government fast-tracked A$6.15 billion in concessional capital, targeting businesses disrupted by global shocks, with zero-interest loans offered to segments like fuel and fertiliser. 2
CBA flagged a noticeable shift: transport now eats up a larger slice of card spending, mostly because of fuel. Food and household goods? Those categories have come off the boil. Recreation’s lost some steam too, but that lines up with the season. Allen pointed out that people seem to be “smoothing spending from savings”—it looks like households are juggling their budgets instead of slamming the brakes on expenses. 1
The bank isn’t as laid-back about the outlook these days. In its March 27 update, CBA projected headline inflation reaching roughly 5.4% by mid-2026, with growth slowing to 1.6% near the end of 2026 and unemployment ticking up to 4.6% in early 2027. Economist Ashwin Clarke flagged a possible May rate hike, though he called it “a line-ball”. 3
CBA now finds itself wedged between rivals making different calls. Westpac is penciling in rate hikes from the Reserve Bank in May, June, and August, aiming for a 4.85% cash rate. NAB is sticking with just one more move in May. Luci Ellis, chief economist at Westpac, pointed to a longer fight and a quicker jump from fuel costs into broader prices. 4
CBA gave a nod to the government’s support package, adding it plans to release specifics to its business and institutional clients after the operating rules are locked in. That’s in line with the bank’s position after posting a record A$5.45 billion first-half cash profit in February—powered by growth across home loans, business lending, and deposits, which further stretched its advantage over Westpac, NAB and ANZ. 5
The outlook may shift quicker than those initial spending figures imply. This week, Carol Kong, CBA’s currency strategist, said the bank is bracing for the war to drag on at least until June. Senior geoeconomics analyst Madison Cartwright echoed that, noting the conflict was never expected to wrap up quickly and pointing out that supply chain disruptions have already pushed up prices for gas, fertiliser, plastics and aluminium. 6
Right now, CBA sees households muddling through—but not in the same way as before. It’s a fragile sort of resilience. Should fuel prices remain elevated and rates climb once more, the bank’s projections suggest the pinch could move beyond wallets, hitting growth, jobs, and the mortgage-loaded balance sheet that’s kept CBA on top as Australia’s biggest lender. 1
