New York, Feb 17, 2026, 3:05 PM EST — Regular session
Constellation Energy Corporation climbed roughly 3.9% to $299.60 Tuesday afternoon, pulling back after hitting $305.78 earlier in the session. The move higher rippled through the sector—Vistra gained around 1.2%, Talen Energy added 1.6%, and NRG Energy advanced nearly 1%.
Traders are puzzling over whether PJM Interconnection’s efforts to rein in data-center demand might prompt a wave of direct partnerships between electricity-hungry firms and independent power producers. “A flurry of major data center-slash-power deals” could hit the tape soon, according to James West, managing director at Melius Research. Over at Zacks Investment Research, Andrew Rocco dubbed the situation a “pay-or-play” dynamic. But even with momentum building, Bow River Capital’s Rick Pederson cautioned that a stampede is likely to run into hard barriers—permitting delays and the infamous interconnection queue among them. (Reuters)
Policy remains in play. PJM will keep its cap on capacity-auction prices for another two years—a decision made after Pennsylvania pushed hard for it. Governor Josh Shapiro put a number on the benefit, saying the extension could trim roughly $27 billion from customer costs. (Reuters)
Capacity auctions work as forward markets, compensating power plants for being ready when demand spikes. But there’s a cap on those payments. For generators, that ceiling cuts into potential gains during tight supply—no matter if demand keeps rising.
Constellation continues its push into large-scale contracts. Earlier this month, the company said its Calpine unit landed a new 380-megawatt deal with Dallas-based CyrusOne, set to supply a Texas data center neighboring the Freestone Energy Center. There’s also an exclusive agreement for another 380 MW to cover a second expansion. With these latest contracts, plus the 400-MW deals inked last year for a separate Texas location, CyrusOne’s total contracted load with Constellation in the state climbs past 1,100 MW. The company also confirmed it wrapped up the $16.4 billion Calpine acquisition last month. (Reuters)
Supply is another concern. Back in January, an SEC filing listed roughly 49.6 million Constellation shares registered for resale by selling stockholders—a detail that tends to hang over a stock when large holders eye an exit on a rally. (SEC)
The action Tuesday followed a more stable session after the extended U.S. holiday break, though jitters lingered over AI-driven turbulence in tech stocks. “Those names have become very crowded,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley Wealth. (Reuters)
Still, the trade’s got plenty of ways to unravel in a hurry. Pushback from regulators on power prices, data-center construction that doesn’t move as quickly, or setbacks hooking up new generation—all of those can take a chunk out of this story. The group’s already proved it can swing sharply in either direction.
Constellation’s next spark could come with its upcoming quarterly results, as investors look for details on hedging moves, the speed of contract signings, and how management is handling the evolving PJM regulations.
Macro traders have their calendars marked for Feb. 20. That’s when the Commerce Department’s BEA drops the Personal Income and Outlays report at 8:30 a.m. EST, featuring the PCE price index—closely tracked by the Federal Reserve. Any unexpected twist could jolt bond yields and ripple through to utilities and power producers that are sensitive to rates. (Bea)
